Trade, Live and Thrive: 12/01/14

Monday, December 1, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top - Week 4 of November 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 Nov'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 28 Nov'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 28 Nov'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

October Candle the Green Hanging Man #M1, produces a Bullish Continuation in November.
Index close to the Medium Term Channel Top #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls after defending the Month channel bottom on the EOM #M1, almost reach the Week Channel Top #W1.

Moving Averages:

Daily 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay deflected Bullishly #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 still in the 60s, divergence to price seen #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls earlier popped out of the Broadening top on the EOD after keeping above the daily 5 EMA all the way from the Channel bottom i.e. for 31 days.
Bears hold back the index near the weekly channel top (orange) #D1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Hanging Man (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) active in the Long Term screen #M1.
Broadening Top (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up - to be watched for re-forming top #D1.

Support & Resistance:

Weekly Channel Top #W1 and current All Time High (ATH) are resistances.
The 5 EMA on the daily charts and on weekly charts (2040) are the supports, that the Bears would want to break #W1.

Moving Averages:

The Index is currently above all the MAs that we track.

Indicators:

TSI holds above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls after popping above the 'Broadening Top' on the EOD #D1, look to get above the Medium Term Channel Top #W1.
Bears look to get below the elusive 5 EMA on the Day Chart #D1 after 30+ days.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Pause ? - Week 4 of November 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 28 Nov'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls after the kick off from the Kumo, get above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen and make it rain ATHs #W2.
Chikou Span momentum slows #W1.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen still in Touch and they level out #W2.
Senoku Span A & B gap is flat #W3.

Wrap: Bulls bounced off the Kumo and used the Chikou Span deflection, to make it rain ATHs, as momentum slows # W2. Bears look to get back in the game.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, starting with a move to below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
Chikou Span dipping towards the Price line is the Bear ask #W1.
Bulls demand a deflection of the Tenkan Sen to above the Kijun Sen #W2.

Wrap: Bears look to move below the Tenkan Sen #W2 - Bulls see a Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen next #W1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Skirmish Line Take-off - Week 1 of December 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Nov'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Nov'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 28 Nov'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls avoid a Long Term Evening Star #M1.
Old EOD Channel Top (blue) was again the Skirmish line for Bulls and Bears - Bulls bounce the index on this line, for a Take off, towards the red channel top last week #D1

Support & Resistance:

Index yo-yo'd about the old EOD channel top (Blue) and again used the Daily 13 SMA as support last week #D1. R1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1, was resistance broken.

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, stay Bullishly crossed after the mild deflection of the previous week #D1.

Indicators:

MACD and its MA meet again in deflection D2.

Wrap:

Bulls are dominant across all screens, index nearing critical channel tops.
Bears again lose advantage at the skirmish line, but hold below the EOD channel top #D1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

October candle the Closing White Marubozu (Study Links here, here or elsewhere), produces good results for the Bulls in November #M1.
Old EOD Channel Top (blue) is now the support that the Bulls need to stay above, to be able to carry on to the red channel top #D1.

Support & Resistance:

Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the Wall for December (8494) and the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
Bears look to get the Index below the old EOD channel top (blue) #D1..

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are still converging #D1.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD needs to be watched for #D1.

Indicators:

STS has stayed in the overbought for 3 Quarters now, reflects Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.

Wrap :

Staying above the blue EOD channel top, Bulls aim for the red EOD channel resistance #D1.
Bears want to see the Index below the Wall for December 8494.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bull Roll - Week 1 of December 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 28 Nov'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls reach higher with an ATH, above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap even and the lines are climbing #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are also reaching up with a steady gap between them #W2

Wrap: Index uses the resistance of the last high, moves above the Tenkan Sen and is on a new ATH spree #W2

Looking Forward into this Week:

Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few months #W1.
A Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflection is on, albeit with a large gap #W2

Wrap: Bears wish to get the index moving towards the Tenkan Sen, Bulls focus on making new ATHs #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.