Trade, Live and Thrive: 08/18/14

Monday, August 18, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Touch 'n go - Week 3 of August 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Aug'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Aug'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 14 Aug'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Three Inside Up fails to form on the Weekly Charts #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Index pops out of last week's EOD channel - new channel seen #D1.
Index closes exactly at the 13 SMA (1955), just above the 5 EMA (1950) but fails to ensure a Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW (1957) last week #W1.

Moving Averages:

The weekly 5 EMA and 13 SMA, continue to stay in 'Touch' - to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #W1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
TSI under pressure. to continue holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls retake the Short Term Screen, Bears however keep Medium Term Screen in the neutral zone.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Advantage Bears for keeping the Three Inside Up (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) on the EOW, from forming #W1.

Support & Resistance:

EOD channel Bottom and the monthly 5 EMA (1911) are the supports.
The deflection point for the Medium Term 5 EMA & 13 SMA (1966) #W1, is resistance to beat, for the Bulls.

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, will stay on Bullish deflection course, if Index closes above 1966, this week #W1.

Indicators:

TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1 continuing, by closing above 1966.
Bears would want to see the first monthly close below the 5 EMA (1911) after May 2012 #M1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Save 2 - Week 3 of August 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 15 Aug'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Kijun Sen saves the Bulls for the second week running #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen decreases further #W2.
Gap between Senoku Span A-B increases #W3.

Wrap: Kijun Sen arrests the Index fall and saves the Bulls again #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping below the Tenkan Sen - Bears target the Kijun Sen again #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Chikou span deflecting off the Price line, augers well for Bulls #W1.

Wrap: Bulls want life above the Tenkan Sen following the Chikou Span Deflection, Bears want to close this week below the Kijun Sen #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls slip above the wall - Week 3 of August 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Aug'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Aug'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 14 Aug'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls slip Index above the August Wall. July Candle's High Wave effect, gives the Bulls some joy #M1.
Last two candles on the Weekly chart form a 'Above the Stomach' Pattern #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls defending the Day Channel Bottom #D1. close above the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1.
Bears fail to defend the August Pivot 7667 and give up the Wall 7721 #M1

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bullishly mid-week to give Bulls dominance of all screens #D1.

Indicators:

MACD and its MA touch for a Bullish Cross - reflecting the recent Bull moves #D2.
STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

Wrap:

Bears lose control of the short term screen after index slips above the August Wall 7721 (Study), Bears defend recent Highs #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

July candle's High Wave effect (Study links here, here or elsewhere) is on #W1.
The 'Above the Stomach' Pattern (Study links here, here or elsewhere) near the Highs, warrant a careful look #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bears seek to get below the confluence of the 5 EMA on the EOW (7669) & Month Pivot (7667) #M1 - the current Index support #W1.
Index faces resistance at the last ATH (7841).

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's have initiated converging #D1.

Indicators:

STS slipping below the overbought, augers well for the Bears #W1.

Wrap:

Bulls look to defend the Month Pivot #M1 and get above the ATH (7841) #M1.
Bears look to get below the August Wall 7721 and break the EOD channel bottom #D1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls move up - Week 3 of August 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 14 Aug'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls move up from recent lows and cross the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap dips #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also dips #W2

Wrap: Bulls climb above Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a couple of months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bears look to defend recent Highs #W2.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap narrowing favors the Bears #W2.

Wrap: Bears look to get the index below the Tenkan Sen and break recent lows , Bull focus is to keep above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.