Trade, Live and Thrive: 04/07/13

Sunday, April 7, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 April to 05 April, 2013 - Knocked back by the All Time High

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 05 April'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 05 April'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 05 April'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bears hold the 'All Time High Line' #M1
The short term screen gets into neutral zone #D1.
5 EMA crosses bearishly below the 13 SMA and takes support on the MVWAP34 #D1.
Triple top on Long Term Charts - keeps the Bear hopes high.

Bears move the index below the 5 EMA on short #D1 and medium term #W1 screens.

RSI and its MA re-cross bearishly #W2.
Day channel holds the bears #D1.

Bears defend the 'All Time High' Line and Bulls hold the Day Channel #D1.

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.

As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's #D1, bottom green line and MVWAP34, remains the support for the Bulls.
Bulls aim for the all time high of the SP500 (1576) - resistance #W1, #M1.

Keeping the price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, bears remain strong.

Triple Top on the Long Term Screen, remains the bane of the Bulls for some more time

5 EMA and 13 SMA on day charts #D1, crossing near the 'All Time High' was good for Bears.

Breaking the Day Channel #D1 is the next task for the Bears...

With the Bulls struggling near the 'All Time High', focus shifts to the triple top and its implications...

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 April to 05 April, 2013 - Three Outside Down Effect !

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 05 April'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 05 April'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 05 April'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

The Three Outside Down's effect over the week and a bounce in first couple of days happened last week.
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows the Bull's next possible support #4.

200 DMA on the EOD #5 fails last week - Bears get the honey.

Price heads towards the 50% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5.
Price also nears the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 2009 low and All time high #3.
13 SMA on the Month Chart acts as support last week #1.

Three Outside Down' Triggered #1 after last month's close and Bears get a 200+ point fall.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Staying above 5538, the 13 SMA on the Month Charts #1 - is important for Bulls to fight back.

Bullish Cross/deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA to be watched for #5.
Pull back to Day Channel's green bottom line to be watched for #5.
Crashing below the 200 SMA #5, gives the Bears a strong overhead resistance to count on.

Bears rule short and medium term screens - long term is neutral as of now.

The Three Outside Down's effect continues, if the Bulls cannot keep above 5538 (EOW).

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 01 April to 05 April, 2013, 2013 - Pause again !

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (cC)

Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 05 April'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for that post)

Bulls pause for a week.. #2..

The Chikou Span #1, maintains its distance to the price line.

The Oscillator #3 ticks up - divergence with Price muted.

Advantage continues with the Bulls.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.

Bearish Divergence less apparent on the Oscillator #3.

Bulls would look at keeping the advantage - keeping clear of the Ichimoku Indicators.

Bears look forward to a reversal and getting below the Tenkan Sen - Bulls seek new highs..

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 01 April to 05 April, 2013 - Kumo beckons

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Bearish Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

New:

The Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Cc)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (T)

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 05 April'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls fail to avoid the Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross #2.

Oscillator continues to tick down #3.

Chikou Span crosses under the price line to make a weak Bearish Signal #1.

A Bullish Chikou Span Cross / Deflection of last week, was not held by the Bulls, Bears continue with the fall..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Getting above the Tenkan Sen would be the next Bull task #2.

Chikou Span staying below price line a must for the Bear run #1.

The Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #2, stays on unless Bulls take off from here and reach Feb'2013 levels...

Next notable resistance for the Bears is the Kumo - Bulls would hope it does not have to go there...

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.