Saturday, March 24, 2012

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 19 March to 23 March 2012 - Flat lies the Kumo.

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 23 March 2012  

Quick Reference : 
The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Recent Signals : Last week (click here) and Previous Week (click here)

We concluded our study last week, with the note that the Flat Kumo (Senkou Span B), should start attracting the Price downwards, in the weeks to come. We used the the signals marked 'F' and 'G'. Incidentally last week's candle is red.

Another input is that the Kijun Sen (blue) has gone flat for the last two candles (see H above). As one would have studied in the reading material on Ichimoku, this flat nature implies lack of momentum, flat trend and state of equilibrium which also draws the price to itself (like the Flat Kumo).

Price breaching the Tenkan Sen (red) is the first indication, we would get of a correction. This does not look like happening, anytime too soon.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Déjà vu ?

Recap: Last week (post here) we called a 'correction' and got it. While the quantum of the correction may not be something to Tom Tom about, the Bears would have woken up from their 5 week Slumber. Was our risky call really brave, or were we plain nuts? Lets study the charts updated with last week's data, to find out.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 23 March 2012  
S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The long term chart looks good, and in Bull mode. Currently nosing above last year's high, there is no major divergence of price line with the indicator below, as of now. Let's get closer to the action, as below.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 23March 2012 
S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): The white channel lines define the Week's channel that we follow, and the 'mode' is Bull here also. This medium term chart give us feeling of  'Déjà vu'. Notice the candle sets, that the three arrows point to. All Bearish Haramis and the first two were bought into, by the Bulls. We are discussing the fate of  the third set. One should have a re-look at how to trade this pattern (we studied it here last). 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 23 March  2012  
S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): The short term charts as above, have a change in orientation of the yellow 'Day Channel lines' due to last week's price action. This chart unlike the two above are in 'neutral mode'. Price touched the middle of the Week Channel (white) and Corrected to close below the 5 EMA.

Looking Forward: Short term indicator's pointing down, does not make it a 'Correction' of substantial nature.  However before writing off our Bear Call of last weekend, as mere pause, we should look at the three arrows on the Week Chart above. Will the Bulls say 'Déjà vu' or do the Bears get third time 'Lucky' ?