EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 23 April 2012 - Back to the Wall..

Nifty - End of Day - 23 April  2012     

The Wall as we saw it was 5180, and Nifty visited it last Monday (click)., and now again come this Monday, and we have revisit.

Short Term EMAs have crossed down, we are below the critical 34 EMA (EOD as above), old channel lines are back and MACD stays sub-zero.

In our weekend post - despite the Bullish noises (click) - we had observed that the Bears may run with Global weakness (see Looking Forward) - that happened today, with Futures falling all across.

The Wall held last week, because Global mood lifted (click) - let us watch that space now also.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 09 April to 13 April, 2012 - Bears have the last word..

Recap: 

Our outlook, for the week gone by, on the S&P 500 was distinctly Bearish (click),

However, we choose to go with the Bulls for the Indian market (click).

Bulls kept up a stand off, while cat and mouse games ruled (click and click).

Right from under the Bull's Noses, Bears took the Index the global way, in the second half of Friday, leaving the Nifty blushing red.

What next?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 13 April, 2012. 

The last two red candles are inside the green candle of Feb'2012, in the long term chart above.

The 5 EMA would cross above the 13 SMA if the Nifty touches 5394 this month.

Currently the Bearish Harami's (Feb/Mar candles) effect, is on.

Nifty closed above the 5 EMA, Bulls remain in control of the Long term screen.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 13 April, 2012.

Slipping just under the 34 EMA, Bulls have lost the advantage.

The medium term trend had bucked Global Bearishness, until the second half of Friday.

The Bulls would want to get back above the 34 EMA, while the bears would aim for our channel bottom (black).

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 13 April, 2012.

The journey of the index, to below the green channel bottom, was after quite a fight, as the many touches tell.

The crossovers made by the 5 EMA and 13 SMA were too many in the end, but emphasized their utility.

The MACD stayed stubbornly, sub zero.

Inability of the Index, to get above the 34 EMA, all through the week was the key for Bears.

With the medium term and short term going Bear, Bulls would look at avoiding another Lower Low.

Looking Forward: 

One would watch global cues, as they seem to have a non-technical influence on the Index.

Above 34 EMA on the EOD, the Bulls can wrest back control.

The 200 DMA looks like the next stop once again.

The 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA...long term bullish.
Even if the Nifty loses a steady 50 points every session from here to month end, the 34 EMA would just about get even with the 200 DMA (Nifty would be at 4700 odd, by then :) .......).

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 11 April 2012 - Cat and mouse..

Nifty - End of Day - 11 April  2012     

In our last intra week note (post below this one), we suggested that the Nifty was in Neutral - Stand Off mode.

We also suggested that channel break or 5 EMA / 13 SMA cross would give the bears, short term strength.

We further suggested that 5225 was the mark for the cross.

We have a close at 5227 today and higher yesterday.

Channel break of significance is yet to happen and the 5 EMA / 13 SMA are in touch.

Yet, based on global cues, Nifty played cat and mouse with the Bear zone, all week.

The short term remains Neutral, as it was for the last two posts.

Watch the 5 EMA / 13 SMA if its a cross or 'touch and go' (deflection).

Based on that Nifty could go bear or BULL !

The BSE 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 02 April to 06 April 2012 - Bulls stay in..

Quick Reference : 

The Tenkan Sen - red line, 

The Kijun Sen - blue line, 

The Chikou Span - purple line, 

The Senkou Span A - black line, 

The Senkou Span B - grey line, 

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 02 to 06 April 2012  

Last 6 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: For details see here and here :

1. Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal
2. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
3. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal
4. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal

5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
6. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal

In our study, we consider as important, the signals of the previous posts, summarized above.

Here are what, the above medium term chart, tells us this week.

A. This week's green candle was resisted at the Tenkan Sen (red line) - breaching this line is a preliminary signal of trend reversal in the medium term.

B. The candle was completely within the Kumo - neutral zone. Last week it took support on the Kijun Sen and MVWAP. Strength to Bulls.

C. The Senkou Span A&B (black and grey lines) look like they may cross soon. If the price at the time of Cross is still within the Kumo, this cross would be neutral.

In a screen which was all Bear, couple of weeks ago, we have the Bulls with their noses firmly in, so far as the medium term view goes.

BSE 30: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of  Day Chart - 02 to 06 April 2012  

Last 5 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Day Chart (EOD) in brief: 

1. Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal

2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak  Bearish Signal

3. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bearish Signal

4. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

5. Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

In our study we also consider as important, the previous signals, summarized above.

As anticipated last week (click for post) we had an up move after the Senkou Span Cross was found 'not bearish' but neutral. The other points of interest for the week are...

D. The Chikou Span (purple) is interestingly poised for another go at the price line.

E.  Price which breached the Tenkan Sen (red line) last week, did move up after that.

F. The Senkou Span (Black and grey lines) Cross that we got, was Neutral, as the price was inside the Kumo last week.

G. The Kijun Sen (blue line) Cross, also turned out to be neutral, for the same reason.

I: Price is resisted once again at the Moving VWAP.

Bulls and Bears are well matched, in the short term based on last week's action, a slim bias, favors the Bulls.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Déjà vu ?

Recap: Last week (post here) we called a 'correction' and got it. While the quantum of the correction may not be something to Tom Tom about, the Bears would have woken up from their 5 week Slumber. Was our risky call really brave, or were we plain nuts? Lets study the charts updated with last week's data, to find out.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 23 March 2012  

S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The long term chart looks good, and in Bull mode. Currently nosing above last year's high, there is no major divergence of price line with the indicator below, as of now. Let's get closer to the action, as below.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 23March 2012 

S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): The white channel lines define the Week's channel that we follow, and the 'mode' is Bull here also. This medium term chart give us feeling of  'Déjà vu'. Notice the candle sets, that the three arrows point to. All Bearish Haramis and the first two were bought into, by the Bulls. We are discussing the fate of  the third set. One should have a re-look at how to trade this pattern (we studied it here last). 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 23 March  2012  

S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): The short term charts as above, have a change in orientation of the yellow 'Day Channel lines' due to last week's price action. This chart unlike the two above are in 'neutral mode'. Price touched the middle of the Week Channel (white) and Corrected to close below the 5 EMA.

Looking Forward: Short term indicator's pointing down, does not make it a 'Correction' of substantial nature.  However before writing off our Bear Call of last weekend, as mere pause, we should look at the three arrows on the Week Chart above. Will the Bulls say 'Déjà vu' or do the Bears get third time 'Lucky' ?

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 19 March 2012 - Bingo!

Nifty - End of Day - 19 March  2012   

We concluded last weekend that the 34 EMA should be held by the Bulls to stage a comeback (see last two sections of post here). By the close of the third hour of trade the Nifty had fallen below the 34 EMA (5305) and thereon crashed by 60 odd points. Alert Bears should have enjoyed the action.

The channel bottom (green line) and our range bottom (200 DMA) beckon even as the 5/13 EMA cross stands at touch and go....touch and go (if the cross fails) produce the best bounce backs....the current hope for the Bulls.

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 27 Jan 2012

Recap: The Nifty closed above the crucial 34 EMA on the Weekly chart and is hanging on to the 200 DMA on the daily charts. Another good week for the bulls. Lets check out the action with our Triple Screen Analysis.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 27  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart:  After closing above the 5 EMA last week, this month's candle now is approaching oversold as seen on the indicator at the bottom of the EOM chart above. Let us now zoom into the highlighted area with Weekly candles as in the chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 20 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart: A firm close above the crucial 34 EMA is the fist step towards breaking a 13 month resistance line - our channel top - shown in red above. Notice also the resistance at the STS indicator at the bottom of above chart. For a sharper picture we focus now on the encircled area with line charts on the End of Day charts below.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 27  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart A: From being exactly at the blue line last week, price closed this week at the 200 DMA with a 'Hanging Man' candle pattern. Momentum is with the Bulls and Fib 76x is the target for medium-term Bullishness overall. The 34 EMA is downside support.

Looking Forward: Bulls may face resistance this week around the 200 DMA but bears cannot really get themselves into the game unless the price stays below the 34 EMA or in the very short-term, below 5160.  So that can be our range as marked on the EOD chart above. Despite the recent disconnect of the Nifty with US markets we should watch this month's close of the S&P 500 - read analysis posted here.