EOD Technical Analysis, S&P 500 - 19 April 2012 - Bulls on a flat field..

S&P 500 - End of Day - 19 April  2012   

We had an intra-week update couple of days ago (click), where we had observed that, 'the Bulls had caught up'.

We also emphasized that, the field was wide open and that, none of the MAs had crossed above the others.

Index continues to be flat, Bulls just about hold on to some weekly gains.

We are below MVWAP 34 again, short term MAs in bear mode.

The yellow Day channel changes, consequent to price action, to include the last two candles.

MACD Histogram has moved into plus territory.

Based on present position, the last two weekly candles, show a Bullish Harami (with one trading day to go).

Index continues consolidating, one expects the MVWAP34 to be the decider, for a Bull move.
The white weekly channel line, supporting the price, should crack for the advantage to shift to Bears, in the medium term.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 09 April to 13 April 2012 - Bear touch..

Quick Reference : 

The Tenkan Sen - red line, 

The Kijun Sen - blue line, 

The Chikou Span - purple line, 

The Senkou Span A - black line, 

The Senkou Span B - grey line, 

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page


DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 13 April 2012  

Last 6 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: 

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

2. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal

5. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal

6. Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak  Bearish  Signal (minor)

In our study, we consider as important, the signals of the previous posts, summarized above.

A. Although not an official signal, the Price crossing the Tenkan Sen (red line) is considered as an early warning sign of sentiment reversal. In this case from Bull to Bear.


Bulls are still all over this screen. Bears need to stay below the Tenkan Sen to have a chance of taking this one over.


DJI 30: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of  Day Chart - 06 April 2012  

Last 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Day Chart (EOD) in brief: 

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

3. Kijun Sen Cross: Weak  Bearish  Signal

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal

5. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

In our study we also consider as important, the previous signals, summarized above.

B. The Chikou Span (Purple line) Crossed into the Price line and is still just above it.

C. We had Price crashing below the Kijun Sen (blue line). Price stayed below MVWAP and the red Tenkan Sen too, all week.

D. The Kumo breakout although named Bullish and Strong - saw the price retreat to close inside the Kumo.

Bears almost have this screen.

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 11 April 2012 - Cat and mouse..

Nifty - End of Day - 11 April  2012     

In our last intra week note (post below this one), we suggested that the Nifty was in Neutral - Stand Off mode.

We also suggested that channel break or 5 EMA / 13 SMA cross would give the bears, short term strength.

We further suggested that 5225 was the mark for the cross.

We have a close at 5227 today and higher yesterday.

Channel break of significance is yet to happen and the 5 EMA / 13 SMA are in touch.

Yet, based on global cues, Nifty played cat and mouse with the Bear zone, all week.

The short term remains Neutral, as it was for the last two posts.

Watch the 5 EMA / 13 SMA if its a cross or 'touch and go' (deflection).

Based on that Nifty could go bear or BULL !

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 02 April to 06 April, 2012 - Bulls hold steady

Recap:

Our view last weekend was that, staying above the wall and the 34 EMA, Nifty would be Bullish.

On cue, we have a green candle, albeit for a truncated week.

We see that on the EOD, there is a Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA.

MACD on the EOD, continues to hang below the zero mark.

Let us study the way forward.

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 05 April, 2012. 

The Bearish Harami, we studied last weekend, remains un-triggered.

The candle for April is green, it takes support on the 13 SMA, above the 5 EMA.

Long Term Bulls, anticipate the cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA. 

Bears hope that these MA lines, would 'touch and go' (reverse).

This screen is currently Bullish.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 05 April, 2012.

The candle for the week shows us the lack of confidence at higher levels(long upper tail).

Its well above the 34 EMA and currently Bullish.

Do notice the channel support, marked on the Stochastic indicator (below) also.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 05 April, 2012.

In our EOD Analysis intra week (click for post),  we noted the MACD's sub-zero position.

We see that there is a Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA.

Price is above the 34 EMA, which for a change has started raising.

The index made another lower high (see the three lower highs (and lows) from 01.02.12).

The short term view is Neutral.

Looking Forward:

Bulls have a good take off point staying above the 5 EMA on the EOD.

Below our 'green' channel bottom on EOD, Bears take strength.

The first trading day after a truncated week, would mean a lot of catching up.

Intra Week updates shall be up.

CNX Nifty 'End of Week' Technical Analysis: After week 13-17 Feb, 2012

Recap: Last week one saw the Fall of the Fibonacci 76.4% marked on the EOD charts (post here). We noted that our channel drawn a month ago - was exactly followed by the Price (post here) and in the same post, we also observed that some crossovers indicate the Bull Market's return, then we studied moving average crossovers - both for and against.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 17 Feb  2012 - each candle is ONE MONTH

Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): Around mid December we had observed (post here) that a pullback to the Green line was possible (highlighted with a blue oval above) - at that Bearish time it looked a remote possibility - today that line looks tantalizingly close. This month's candle can touch the green line at approx 5747 and next month's candle approx 5838. Now, we shall zoom in for a closer look at the area marked in the blue rectangle - with the EOW chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 17 Feb  2012 - each candle is ONE WEEK

Nifty - End of Week Chart (EOW): Last week's candle has exactly touched our channel top (highlighted with a blue  oval above). Cracking last week's high should give us our new channel (shown in black) and the targets discussed in the EOM above. A consolidation around the channel top is healthy for the up move. We now study the area marked inside the blue rectangle with the EOD charts below.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17 Feb 2012 - DAILY close price in a line

Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD): We are near channel top here also as observed earlier (post here).  The next leg of the up move or consolidation should be watched in sync with EOW and EOM notes above. Bulls remain strong above 5454. Throw back should be held by the Fib 76x line.

Looking forward: Channel tops, both on EOD and EOW, smell of consolidation. Bulls however have enough momentum to take the climb into a steeper channel up. Fundamental reasons (Budget and PIGS) may queer the pitch. Battle lines between Bears and Bulls are drawn for now, at the channel lines as studied above.

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 17 02 2012 - Channels and Crossovers..

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17 Feb 2012

It was about a month ago that we defined the channel you see on the EOD above (post here). We have a precise climax at the channel top happening now - 800 odd Nifty points later.

The crossover of the 34 EMA to above the 200 DMA on the EOD has significance from a long term view. So does the 5 EMA - 13 SMA cross on the EOM mentioned last week (post here). They usually signify the return of the Bull market.

Here are some free reads on MA crossover for the weekend....

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:arthur_hill_on_movin
http://www.traderslog.com/moving-average-crossovers/

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 03 02 2012 - above the blues

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week  Jan' 30 to Feb'03, 2012

Our End of Jan'12 Analysis (post here) concluded that it was Advantage Bulls. Since then the bulls have moved the index up 30 odd points, keeping well above the BLUE middle line of the monthly channel (shown above). The 3 white lines show the Weekly channel (update from old post here). Moving above the middle line of the Weekly channel is what would keep the Bulls on their toes next week.

Bearish Doji Star

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 20  Jan  2012 - Candles

The last time we paid attention to Candlesticks it paid off good (post here). So here is the next possibility. Suggested reading material below..

http://www.candlestickanalysis.com/bearish-doji-star-candlestick-pattern

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Monthly channel breach?

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week 16-20  Jan 2012.

We had observed last week (post here) that the price could break either of the channel lines it was between. Price closed above the red channel line which is the channel bottom of the monthly channel (from here). With 10 days to go for the month to end, bulls just need to keep it above the red line for monthly momentum to remain on their side.  Déjà vu ?

EOD Analysis - 20 Jan 2012 - CNX Nifty - Bulls get best among global gains.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 20  Jan  2012

Post break-out Bulls have taken Nifty to one of the best gains YTD - Globally. Notice in the highlighted area that the Price has EXACTLY touched the blue line of our channels presented in the last post here. A decent throw back expected. The Week end posts shall be up shortly...

CNX Nifty: Tri-star Doji anyone?

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 13  Jan  2012 - Candles

Looks almost like three Dojis - that evokes memories of a Tri-star Doji - Here are the write ups from a free resource on the internet - Read the examples also :) Your call....

http://thepatternsite.com/TriStarBull.html
http://thepatternsite.com/TriStarBear.html

Ichimoku Study - BSE Sensex - End 2011

BSE  Sensex - Month Chart - End of 2011 - with the Ichimoku  Cloud

This study is rather long term - appropriate for a new year - so here is wishing you a happy 2012 :) - happy learning !!

The Ichimoku Cloud is a versatile indicator that defines support, resistance, identifies trend direction, gauges momentum and gives one trading signals.

The Ichimoku parts - see chart above..

The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area

Read up the funda on this at the reference link at the bottom of this post to learn about this indicator..

Our observations using the Monthly chart - each candle is one month - period 2004 to 2011 - 7 year study.
Past:
1. Indian Equity markets were in Bull mode from 2004.
2. The crash of 2008 brought the market into the kumo (grey shade) - just about neutral / flat zone (not even bear zone)!!
3. Since the 2009 rise from the kumo - it was soon back to Bull mode.

Present:
1. We have a weak kijun sen (blue) cross Sell signal as the recent bearish cross happens above the kumo.
2. We have a weak tenkan sen (red) /kijun sen (blue) cross Sell signal - as the bearish cross happens above the kumo.
3. The current close price (as depicted by the chikou span - purple) is lower than the price 26 periods ago,  this indicates that there is a potential for more bearish price action to come.
4. The price is above the Kumo at present and that is Bull zone.
5. There is a Senkou Span Cross coming up which may be Bullish based on present view...

Some useful free links I googled -

To create Ichimoku Charts - if your chart provider does not have it...

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

To learn about the Ichimoku Charts

https://www.ichimokutrade.com/articles/Ichimoku_Ebook.pdf

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud

For the latest study click this link

Update - End of Day : 30 December 2011

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 30 12 2011

Our note at the previous post 'Looking forward' mentions two scenarios - the Bull scenario started off in the first half of  the week and the Bear scenario took over in the second half - there was also a Bullish crossover of the 5 EMA to above the 13 SMA followed by a Bearish cross of the same averages this very same week as seen at the right end  of the chart above. A hard fought week - Bears won.