Trade, Live and Thrive: 02/03/13

Sunday, February 3, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 28 January to 01 February, 2013 - Bulls near Channel Top

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 01 Feb'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 01 Feb'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 01 Feb'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Channel top resistance #D1, as expected - hedges the Bulls, another green week ensues.

#D2 and #W2 shows the Divergence developing on this up move.

#M1, #W1, #D1 - show us that the Month Channel's red top line, is even closer to the price line.
5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD charts #D1, close in for a possible cross or deflection...
RSI #W2, causes another 'Lower High' and yet to move into oversold.

Bulls are on top on all the three screens as of now.

Bulls are on a Song and its only the Month/Day Channel's top red line #M1/#D1 and the Divergences #D2 & #W2, that could play spoil sport..

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.

As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's, top red line #D1, continues to be resistance for Bulls.

The MVWAP 34 on the EOD, #D1is the likely support.

RSI #W2, causing another 'Lower High' is not good for Bulls.

Possibility of a MA cross or deflection 13 SMA with 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1 appears nearer.
Month Channel top #M1 assumes critical importance as the next major resistance to beat.

Confluence of the Day & Month Channel Top is a critical resistance - #D1..

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 28 January to 01 February, 2013 - 2 Crows & a Wall

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 01 Feb'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 01 Feb'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 01 Feb'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Channel Top Stop on the EOW #3 - again - sends back the Bulls.

Our mark was 6126 and the week topped at 6112 - watchful bears moved down for a 125 point fall #5.

5 EMA slips below the 13 SMA, on the short term charts #5 - disadvantage Bulls.

Day channel #5 with the arrows, show us the resistance and supports to watch out for, next week.
Index slips below the 5 EMA on the EOW charts #3.

MACD and Signal lines stay Bearishly crossed #6.

A possible Evening Star Reversal fails - but a 'Bearish 2 Crows' pattern emerges #3

Bulls lose control of the short term even as the Bears rev up some momentum after bouncing off the Week Channel's top line #3.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel top on the EOW, remains a major resistance #3.

Bouncing from the Blue middle line of the EOD channel #5 - Bulls could attempt a retake of the short term screen.

Index getting back above the 5 EMA on the EOW, is critical for Bulls in the medium term #3.

Action of the MACD vs signal line, is worth a watch #6.
Wall for the month is 6035.

A study of the 2 Crows pattern, here, here or anywhere else is good, from an educational perspective.

Closing above the Wall (6035) is the near term task for the Bulls - Taking the index below the 34 EMA on the EOD Charts #5 keeps the short term with the Bears.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.