Trade, Live and Thrive: 03/31/14

Monday, March 31, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top Struggle Continues - Week 1 of April 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 Mar'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 28 Mar'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 28 Mar'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Index continues its consolidation after the 'Opening White Marubozu' of last week on the EOW #W1, month candle goes red again #M1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls resisted near the current ATH, Index takes support at the Daily channel bottom #D1.

Moving Averages:

On the Day Chart, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA deflect bearishly #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13, meanders to the 50s #W2.
True Strength Indicator struggles to stay under the 74.6% Fibonacci retrace (between its High and Low) on the long term charts #M1

Wrap:

Bears defend current ATH - Bulls close the week inside the Day channel #D1

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

The second weekly 'Opening White Marubozu' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) of March is now active - it continued the consolidation process last week #W1.

Support & Resistance:

13 SMA on the Week Charts (1836) #W1, continues as support for the Bulls for the 7th week now, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.

Moving Averages:

Bullish cross or Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 is on the cards as they are in close proximity.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4, slipping below the over-bought zone, works for the Bears #D2.
TSI staying above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace line, favors the Bulls #M2.

Wrap:

Bears hope to get below 1836 - Bulls need the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Stand-off near ATH - Week 1 of April 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 28 Mar'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bull - Bear stand-off continues but now closer to the ATH #W2.
Senoku Span A & B gap narrows mildly #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also narrows mildly #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running into the Price Line #W1.

Wrap: Index on pause near ATH, advantage Bulls #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Gap between Senoku Span A & B, if holding steady or increasing - good for Bulls #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward before Price line gets too close to the Kumo $W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.

Wrap: Bulls want the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen staying apart #W2, Bears look to visit the Kumo #W3.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - EOW Channel Folds - Week 1 of April 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Mar'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Mar'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 28 Mar'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

January and February Candles formed a 'Piercing Pattern' #M1. Bulls near March end with a break-out new high.

Support & Resistance:

Index finally and decisively clears the earlier EOW channel top as also the Monthly Pivot's R2 #D1. Index moves now in a steeper up-channel as drawn #W1.
The deflection point of he 13 SMA & 5EMa on the EOD #D1 was support for Bulls.

Moving Averages:

The short term 5 EMA bullishly deflects off 13 SMA early in the week, to setup the break-out bull move #D1.

Indicators:

MACD and its MA also deflect #D2, TRD nudging above the 61.8% retrace drawn #M2.
Volume for this up-move (month) has been average #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls control all screens - Bears retreat to defend the new Weekly Channel top #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Bullish 'Piercing Pattern' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is active and has produced a breakout new High.

Support & Resistance:

The current support is the April'14 Wall i.e. 6642 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere).
New EOW Channel top is now resistance for the Bulls #W1.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.

Indicators:

TRD Indicator staying above the 61.8% retrace boosts bulls #M2. MACD sliding below its MA favors Bears #D2.

Wrap:

Bears retreat to defend the new Weekly Channel top #W1, Bulls look to stay above the April Wall (6642) and reach day channel top.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls soar after pause - Week 1 of April 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 28 Mar'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls break-out to new All Time Highs again #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen increases as in a broad deflection #W2
Chikou Span also makes a new High #W1.

Wrap: Index soars after the pause, to a new ATH #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span dipping now would set up a easy meeting with the price-line #W1.
Early Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, makes for a bull party #W2. Proximity of these two lines however, keeps the Bulls on the edge.

Wrap: Bears like the Chikou Span below the Price line. Bulls focus on widening the gap between the Tenkan sen and the Kijun Sen after the deflection #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.