Trade, Live and Thrive: 03/03/13

Sunday, March 3, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 February to 01 March, 2013 - Bulls Sweat over Channel Top Stop

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 01 March'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 01 March'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 01 March'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Day Channel bottom Support, #D1, helps the Bulls, a green Doji week seen.
#M1, #W1, #D1 - show us that the Month Channel's red top line, is a strong resistance to the price line.
5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD charts #D1, which was seen crossing bearishly last week, look poised for a cross or deflection again.
RSI #W2, and its MA cross bearishly while the action at the STS #M2 shows the Bull's Long Term Strength.
Bulls retake the short term screen #D1 & #D2.
MVWAP 34, supports price again #D1.

Bulls keep above critical MAs on all three screen - Bears hold the Long Term Channel Top - Doji Week once again..

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Month channel's, top red line #M1, continues to be a crucial resistance for Bulls.
The MVWAP 34 on the EOD and the Day channel bottom #D1, remains the support.
Holding the price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the next task for the Bears.
Bullish cross of the 13 SMA with 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1 critical for the Bulls - Bearish Deflection at this stage, would be a boon for the Bears.
The Long Term Channel Top #M1 is our resistance and the Short Term Channel Bottom #D1 is our Support.

The Bullish cross / deflection of critical MAs (5 EMA & 13 SMA) on the Short Term Screen #D1 needs a watch as does the action near the Resistance #M1 & Support #D1 that we studied above.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 February to 01 March, 2013 - Mid Life Crisis..

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 01 March'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 01 March'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 01 March'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Channel Top Stop on the EOW #3, remains the nemesis of Bulls for yet another week.
2 crows pattern which we studied, gives the Bears #3 - more gains.
5 EMA on the EOM #1, fails to support the Bulls, its a critical resistance now.
Day channel #5 (new) sees the Price taking support at the the channel bottom.
50 SMA and 200 SMA converge - on the EOD charts #5.
MACD Histogram shows positive divergence to price #6.
The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high breaks, while the 61.8% holds the Price #1.
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows that the Bulls are around for a comeback #4.

Sent back at the Channel Top #3 on the Medium Term Screen, Price is at the Channel's Middle Line.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel Middle (blue) and 34 EMA on the EOW, is the new support for Bulls #3.
Bouncing from the green bottom line of the new EOD channel #5 - Bulls could attempt a retake of the short term screen.
2 crows pattern that we studied last few weeks, to be followed up for its targets.
50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Getting above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - is important for Bulls to get a shot at new Highs.
Support line on the STS #4, worth a watch.

The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, is resistance and the 61.8% the support to watch.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.