Trade, Live and Thrive: 05/12/14

Monday, May 12, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - ATH Try - Week 3 of May 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 09 May'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 09 May'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Dec'13, onward - as on 09 May'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls get shy near ATH produce a Doji week #W1.
Combination of last two weekly candles makes a Harami Cross #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Index faces resistance near the ATH even as the 13 SMA #W1, was near support.

Moving Averages:

The 5 EMA and 13 SMA #D1 - on the short term screen - touch for last 3 days.

Indicators:

RSI 13, stagnates in the 60s #W2.
TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls dominate all 3 screens - Bears defend the current ATH.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Doji Candle Pattern (Study link here, here or elsewhere) is active #W1.
Harami Cross (Study link here, here or elsewhere) seen as a Continuation Pattern is also active and can produce a Three Inside Down (Study link here, here or elsewhere) if this week closes below 1878.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls see support at the 13 SMA (1859) #W1, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.

Moving Averages:

5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 would cross bearishly at a Index reading below 1835 for this, the third consecutive week.
5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD touching for last three days, can produce Bullish Deflection or Bearish Cross #D1.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4, straying back into the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls need to try for another ATH - Bear future lies below the 13 SMA on the Weekly charts #W1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds yet again - Week 3 of May 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 09 May'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bull end week at All time closing High #W2.
Price Line bounces off the Tenkan Sen intra-week once again #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running bearishly into the Price Line #W1.

Wrap: Index takes support at Tenkan Sen - new closing high (weekly) #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls have hopes of a new ATH #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.

Wrap: Bulls look to break and close above this range #W2, Bears hope to get below the Tenkan Sen after 3 aborted attempts in 3 consecutive weeks #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls revisit ATH - Week 3 of May 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 09 May'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 09 May'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 09 May'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls pull off an 'Engulfing' week to revisit the ATH #W1.
Evening star on the Monthly charts in position to form #M1.

Support & Resistance:

The ATH was resistance for the Bulls last week while the new Day Channel Bottom was support #D1.

Moving Averages:

Index above all the Moving averages that we track.

Indicators:

STS bounces neatly off its Support line to launch Bulls to the ATH last Friday #W2.
TRD hanging around the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace #M2.

Wrap:

All screens with the Bulls - Bears defend ATH (All Time High) and retain 'Evening Star' possibility #M1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Bears can still trigger a 'Long Term' Evening Star formation, if May candle closes below the range 6704-6712 #M1 (Study links here, here or elsewhere)
Bulls look forward to a 'Medium Term', Three Outside up, if this week closes above last week's close (Study links here, here or elsewhere)

Support & Resistance:

Index support that the Bears look to break is 6841 i.e. the May Wall (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere) followed by the Evening Star Trigger as above : 6704-6712 .
Day Channel top (around 7070) is now resistance for the Bulls #D1.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.

Indicators:

TRD Indicator getting below the 61.8% retrace boosts bears #M2.
STS staying above its support line and in the overbought good for Bulls #W2.

Wrap:

Bears see Evening Star formation below 6704-6712 #M1, Bulls look to keep above support line on the STS and make 7070 #W2.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls move ATH - Week 3 of May 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 09 May'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls bounce off Tenkan Sen to launch into a new ATH last week #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also widens as anticipated #W2

Wrap: Bulls after pausing near ATHs for 2 weeks, move to a new ATH #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will meet the price-line, in a few months #W1.
Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, gave the bulls more gains #W2.
Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen gap can continue to widen, even if the Sensex fluctuates 300-500 odd points over the next few weeks as seen #W2.

Wrap: Bears keen to get the index below the Tenkan sen - Bulls after new ATHs #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.