Trade, Live and Thrive: 10/14/13

Monday, October 14, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls revive '3 inside up' :- Week: 07 October to 11 October, 2013.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 11 Oct'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 11 Oct'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 11 Oct'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Despite a volatile week Bulls maintain the 'Three Inside up' (study) in progress #M1, seen last week.

Support & Resistance:

The short Term Channel Bottom was support for the Bulls last week #D1.
Last 'All time High' was the nearest resistance #D1.

Moving Averages:

5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly on Friday last (EOD) #D1.
Index which was heading towards the 200 SMA on the EOD #D1 - turns around and heads for the last 'All time High'.

Indicators:

RSI 13 returns from the overbought #W2.
Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls keep the 'Three Inside Up' in progress on the Long Term .. despite the intra-week dive.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

On the Long Term Chart a Bullish 'Three Inside Up' (study) continues to be in-progress for October ..

Support & Resistance:

34 EMA and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.

Moving Averages:

Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
RSI staying below the oversold, with its divergence to Price apparent, #W2, important for Bears.

Indicators:

Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
Stochastic 34 3 4 getting back to the over bought zone, will work for the Bulls #D1

Wrap:

Bulls hope the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, forms in October - Bears want life below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls back :- Week: 07 October to 11 October, 2013.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 11 Oct'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get back the Kijun Sen & Tenkan Sen #2.
Chikou Span near the Price line #1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow but steady #2.
Yo-yo in fortunes continue for Bulls and Bears..

Bulls wrest back the advantage..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls get index above Kijun Sen, and get back the advantage #2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line important - to be watched for cross or deflection #1.
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B is a concern for Bears #3.
Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen should worry the Bulls #2.

Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Zone Breakout :- Week: 07 October to 11 October, 2013.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 11 Oct'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 11 Oct'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 11 Oct'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

As studied last week - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami - October Candle to-date looks like making it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (study).

Support & Resistance:

5915, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' #5 fails the Bears early in the week.
All time High beckons the Bulls #5.

Moving Averages:

EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5.
EOM - 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly last week - Bearish overhang lifts for now.

Indicators:

STS resistance line, seen last week, holds back the Bulls #4.

Wrap:
Bulls clear 5915 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'), All time High beckons..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

The Bullish 'Three Inside Up' (study) forming on the Long Term Chart #1 - was worth a watch and continues to be focus area.

Support & Resistance:

The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the support for the Index #5.
Last 'All time high' is the resistance #5.

Moving Averages:

200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure.
Bear overhang of the Long Term #1, broke with the 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing Bullishly - the number Bulls need to stay clear of, in Oct'13 is 6003.

Indicators:

STS resistance line which trumped the Bulls last couple of weeks to be watched #4.

Wrap:

Bears place their hopes on the Death Cross #5 and STS Resistance #4 - Bulls eye the 'All time High' #5.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - The Bear Line Up 4 :- Week: 07 October to 11 October, 2013.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 11 Oct'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

The Senkou Span A&B stay met, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also stay met and they all read 19094.20 - a rare sight, fourth straight week in a row #5.
Bulls extend gains reaching up to recent highs #2.

Bears hold on to their last line #5..Bulls near previous Highs #2.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The Senkou Span B crossing above the Senkou Span A #4 or the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen #3 would give the Bulls the Medium Term Screen completely.
Bears manage to hold their border with this line up #5.
Chikou Span remains close enough to Price Line - deflection or cross a few weeks away #1.

Bears desperate to hold their line #5 - Bulls seek to complete the kill #3 & #4.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.