Trade, Live and Thrive: 08/25/12

Saturday, August 25, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 20 August to 24 August, 2012 - Beat by the Last High ?!

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 24 Aug, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 24 Aug, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Q3 2011, onward.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 24 August, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from Q2 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bears deny a Lucky 'seven green candles in a row' to the Bulls (3).

The Negative divergences seen on the EOD (6) and EOW (4) were read correctly by us, as harbingers of a downturn.

Bulls kept it above the MVWAP 34, on all three screens.
A Bearish Harami (3) is formed on the Weekly Chart, with last weeks candle.

The 'Three Inside Up' (1) Keeps the Bulls Green, this month.
The last High (made earlier this year) as a resistance, held back the Bulls.

Looking forward into the next Week:

RSI reading on the EOW (4), shows divergence and the MA3 and the RSI 9 remain bearishly crossed, however, above the 70 mark, Bulls remain on top.

Bears need to break their nemesis of many weeks, the MVWAP 34 - after moving below the 5 EMA on the EOW.

Bears look to break below the middle line of the Day Channel.
Bulls seek to break above the middle line of the Week Channel.

A Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (5) and a Bearish Three Inside down are possible below last week's close (3).
STS position and cross (2) indicates the current long term strength of the Bulls.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 20 Aug to 24 August, 2012 - Fibonacci Hold

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from 2008 onward.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from 2010 onward.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

The Bulls continue to fail at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (3) of the Nifty's all time high and last major low (2008) - now shown on the EOW.

Bulls had stayed above the 5 EMA & 34 EMA on the EOM (1), EOW (3) & EOD (5) - for most of the week - however it slipped below the 5 EMA on the Day Chart (5) on Friday.

Bulls crack the EOW channel top (3) and STS (4) resistance, last week.

Negative Divergence on the MACD (6), is visible.

The month at present looks like its forming a 'Bullish Engulfing Pattern' (1).

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The Fibonacci 76.4% (5), is the next Resistance for the Bulls.

The negative divergence (6) helps the bears.

Falling to below the MVWAP 34 (Monthly), approx 5315 would recharge the Bears.

Bearish cross or Bullish deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (5) is on the cards.

Closing above the Fibonacci 76.4% for the Month would give long term Bulls their cake.

Keeping above the EOW channel top, keeps the Long term Bear on hold.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 20 August to 24 August, 2012 - New Highs !?

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 20 August, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Unlucky at the seventh weekly candle - Bulls see red after 6 green candles in a row.
The Bears hold the Bulls away from beating the previous high - which we continue to see as a strong resistance.
The Oscillator continues to tick up.

Chikou Span (pink line) heads for a possible bearish cross of the Price line.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The negative divergence, developing on the Oscillator - remains a concern, for the Bulls.

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls, next look at, taking out the previous high - a strong resistance.

Avoiding a Bearish Chikou Span cross - is critical for Bulls going forward.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 20 August to 24 August, 2012 - Free of the Kumo !

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (Te)

The Chikou Span Cross: Neutral Bearish Signal (Cc)

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 24 Aug, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Index remained with Bulls - above Kumo (cloud).

The Strong Bullish Tenkan Sen (red) - Kijun Sen (blue) cross (T) keeps this week's candle green despite global bearishness.
The Chikou Span (pink line) is at the price line for a possible cross next week.

Looking forward into the next Week:

A Bullish Chikou Cross gives the bulls further momentum.

Bears look at the flat Kumo's gravity, pulling the index down, damping the breakout momentum.

Staying free of the Kumo - Bulls hope for a breakout move, to beyond previous highs.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.