Sunday, March 31, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 22 March to 28 March, 2013 - Three Outside Down !

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 March'13

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 March'13

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 28 March'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

We saw the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, as support last week - we also saw the Feb'13 close of 5693 as the resistance.
Price initially went below support and then tried to take out the resistance 5693 on the last day of the week & month  - failing with a day high of 5692 - #1, #5.
Bears therefore manage the Three Outside Down which we studied in last week's post.
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows the Bull failure #4.
200 DMA on the EOD #5 - and the bottom channel line (green) provide support last week.

Price falls short of the Feb'13 month close of 5693 - March'13 closes at 5683 - 'Three Outside Down' Triggered #1.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Getting above 5720, the 34 EMA on the Week Charts #3 - is important for Bulls to shoot for some weekly green - despite the Bearish pattern studied above.
Cross or deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA to be watched #5.
Bullish divergence seen on the MACD #6 - helps a pull back.
Getting above the 5 EMA on the EOM #1 and EOW #3 also - gives the Bulls some more power.
Crashing below the 200 SMA #5, gives the Bears the honey.

The Three Outside Down's effect in the long term and a bounce in the short term seem to be happening together ..