Sunday, March 18, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 March to 16 March, 2012 - Sedate Highs..

Recap: By the end of last week, (see Looking Forward) we saw the SP500 on Bull mode, but for the 5/13 EMA cross. Early this week the Bulls took care of that minor detail, and moved from the bottom end of their channel, (see EOD) to the exact top end...where despite crossing last year's high, the Bulls hesitate...lets find out why..

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 16 March 2012 
S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The Price line here, looks like its making a steady progress, to the red channel top. Above all short term EMAs, and with a decent rate of climb, this view looks good for the Bulls. Lets get closer, with the chart below.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 16 March 2012 
S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): Sticking to the bottom of our weekly channel's center line, steadfastly, for a long time now.. the Index is again in a position of strength. The only thing going for the Bears, would be the clear divergence between the price and the Histogram below it. So will the price make it to the channel top? Zoom in below..

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 16 March  2012 
S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): With a dedication almost boring, the Index is stuck to the Day Channel's top line, a mite below the Weekly channel's center line, for ages now. If this continues, both Bulls and Bears will fall asleep. Nah! Just kidding :). Divergences are becoming persistently loud here, as one can see from the STS Indicator below. 

Looking Forward: A decent correction looks like the best medicine for a comatose Bear and Tired Bull. Problem is, oversold Indices can go on & on, in the same track, for a long long time. However lets get brave and make a risky call....Correction time :)