Sunday, March 18, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 March to 16 March, 2012 - Bear Hug.

Recap: With the Nifty moving above our mark for Monday last - of 5343, all the way to the Wall at 5484, we had the up move of the week. Thereafter as anticipated (see Looking Forward and EOD here) the Wall sent the Index back towards the 200 DMA. Nifty took support on the 34 EMA (EOD). After the expected volatility of the Budget, where to now?

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 16 M arch 2012 
CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 Month's price action): Still in a good place for bulls as they anticipate the 5 EMA crossing over the 13 EMA as a confirmation of long term Bull trend. This is in addition to the 34 EMA over the 200 DMA and the Golden Cross which are already on (EOD). Currently, however this month's candle is in line to form a Bearish Harami.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 16 March  2012 
CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): The Bulls have not been able to get a single green week after bouncing back from our channel top line (red), 4 weeks ago. Post the bounce off the 34 EMA the week before, it has shown some intent to give this bugbear another shot. 

Nifty - End of Day - 16 March  2012 
CNX Nifty 50 - Day/EOD Chart (closing prices of each Day in a line): Last week's action was in the range we expected. Keeping above the 34 EMA another shot at the Wall (5484) is in order. If it stays below the 5 EMA however, a bearish cross of the 5/13 EMAs would again send it on a tail spin. So one watches these levels.

Looking Forward: With US and Europe in the oversold zone looking at a correction for health reasons, the Indian market would have to swim against the tide to make an up move. 34 EMA on the EOD and the Wall are important levels. Intra Week updates shall be up.