CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 23 April to 27 April, 2012 - Cat on the Wall..

Recap:

After bouncing off the Wall the previous week,  Nifty fell with world  markets early on (click), and took support at the April Wall (5180).

World markets went the Bull way, for the rest of the week - Nifty did not.

The Nifty sits almost exactly on the new Wall, 5189 (FYI, Wall = Approx Hawala - click). 

This cat on the Wall feeling, usually is precursor to a big move.

Let us check out what that could be.

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 27 April, 2012. 

Holding above the 34 EMA, Bulls still have control of the long term.

Staying below our mark of 5220 (click and see 3rd point of EOM study) the Bullish cross of our short MAs is not a given.
This Bullish Cross was our anticipated cue for a long term Bull market.

If the Nifty stays below the close of March 2012, the last three candles will make a Bearish "Three inside down".

A quick study of this pattern is a good idea, since Month ends tomorrow.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/ThreeInsideDown.html

http://www.moneycontrol.com/glossary/technicals/what-is-three-inside-down-bearish-reversal-pattern_1683.html

http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bear/three_inside_down_bearish.cfm

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 27 April, 2012.

With a clear close below our mark the 34 EMA, this screen has gone Bear.

Also, last week we observed the Bearish cross of the 5 EMA/13SMA.

The action on the Stochastic indicator is also Bearish, with a deflection of the two lines seen.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 27 April, 2012.

Nifty closed below all the MAs that are marked on the screen, except the 200 DMA.

Bearish cross of the 34 EMA below the 200 DMA is our cue for a Long Term Bear Market.

For example; if the Nifty loses 50 odd points every trading day from now - above bearish cross will take about 10 days.

MACD, remains sub-zero. Histogram is negative and MA has crossed bearishly.

Looking Forward:

Staying above the Wall, the Nifty can attempt a move to the Fib 76x.

Strength for the Bulls, is above the 34 EMA on EOD and EOW.

Range to break, is shown on the EOD.
Below the wall, the Bears can take it down real fast - world cues willing.

The BSE 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 23 April to 27 April 2012 - In and out of the Kumo..

......Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction:

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets we track to learn Technical Analysis.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider...

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  

When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 

Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 

However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  

How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?

There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.

Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change...read on...

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - purple line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 27 April 2012  

Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (S)
2. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)
3. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal (K)
4. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)

5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (T)
6. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

7. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)

Also marked on the chart, in Blue ... to discuss this week's action ...

2: The Chikou Span (purple line) has finally crossed the price line bearishly (C). As this action happened when the Price was below the Kumo, the Bearish Signal is deemed 'Strong'.

3: The last candle has moved back out of the Kumo - Bearish Kumo breakout (B) 

Just as in last week, the Price is above the Kijun Sen and M VWAP 34 -  This is Bullish .

See circle - the Bullish Senkou Span cross, which seemed imminent - may be delayed. 

The Price has moved in and out of the Kumo for quite a few weeks, its still near this wall.

Conclusion: Bulls have lost ground again last week, however staying above the Kijun Sen, Bulls still have a chance to move up.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 23 April to 27 April, 2012 - Bulls Move..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction:

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets we track to learn Technical Analysis.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider...

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  

When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 

Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 

However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  

How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?

There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.

Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change...read on...

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - purple line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 27 April 2012  

Last 6 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (S)

2. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (C)

3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (T)

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

5. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

6. Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish  Signal (minor signal - see arrow)

1. Price crossing the Tenkan Sen (red line) is considered as an early warning sign of sentiment reversal. The reversal was studied last weekend (click) and the consequent candle (last one above) is a Bull's reward.

Conclusion is same as pointed out last week, 'Bulls are still all over this screen. Bears need to get Index below the Tenkan Sen, to have a chance of taking this one over.'

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 23 April to 27 April, 2012 - Bulls find Channel Support.

Recap:

Last week (click) our view Looking Forward was, quote ..

"MVWAP 34 (EOD) to our White Channel bottom (EOW), is the range to break, going into next week... and  Longs would pin their hopes on the Bullish Harami (EOW), even if its reliability is low..." unquote..

Our Call was correct, as we studied in our Intra Week, EOD Analysis: click and click. 

The MVWAP34 was broken & we have the "Three Inside up" that the Bulls hoped for. 

Let us check out the action of last week, and find the way forward..

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOM Chart: 

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 27 April, 2012. 

Bulls continue to rule this screen.

The last candle of the screen (not shown) looks like a Doji - shall study once month ends.

Currently the close of last month, and open of current month, are exactly equal.

Month end view is awaited.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:  

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 27 April, 2012.

As the Bulls hoped (see last week's EOW), the Bullish Harami mutated into a "Three Inside up".

The 10 EMA is set for a touch and go (studied earlier, a.k.a: deflection) with the 13 SMA, can produce an explosive up move, if it materializes.

Weekly close is above all Short term MAs that we study.

Channel lines are realigned to the last Price action.

The RSI has closed above the MA3 - see Indicator below chart.

Bulls are back, on this medium term chart..

Another study of the "Three Inside up" for your reading..

http://www.thepatternsite.com/ThreeInsideUp.html

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart where each candle is 1 day's price action (or) EOD Chart: 

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 27 April, 2012.  

Break of the previous range at the MVWAP34 gives us this realigned channel (yellow).

Price has closed above all short term MAs that we study, they are bullishly crossed over, and we are above the MVWAP 34.  

Bulls are on top, in the Short Term too..

Looking Forward:

Staying above the MVWAP34 (EOD), the Bulls have a clear run to the channel top.

The "Three Inside up" and "Deflection" from the EOW study add hope for the Bulls.

The Candle pattern, that this month is forming, is a vote for the Bears. Shall be studied on month close.

EOD Technical Analysis, S&P 500 - 25 April 2012 - Bingo...

S&P 500 - End of Day - 25 April  2012  

In our Weekend Analysis (click) and in the last EOD Analysis (see post below this one) we saw the range for the Index as ""MVWAP 34 (EOD) to our White Channel bottom (EOW), is the range to break, going into next week".

The Index as noted in the last post, left the Bottom end of our range, and this day, touched the higher end - EXACTLY - if one may add ...

Short Term EMAs have been crossed by the price, and are now crossing each other bullishly.

Histogram has ticked +.

This resistance offered by the MVWAP34, was support at couple of earlier instances, and hence bit of a nut to crack.

So our range(to break) remains same, going into the weekend - see ya there.

EOD Technical Analysis, S&P 500 - 23 April 2012 - Bears edge ahead...

S&P 500 - End of Day - 23 April  2012   

Our expectation last weekend (click) was that "MVWAP 34 (EOD) to our White Channel bottom (EOW), is the range to break, going into next week".

Bears took it below the White EOW Channel for a bit, the Bulls however managed to close the index inside the channel.

The 10 EMA has just about equaled the 13 SMA.


Close is below all short term MAs that we study above.
The Histogram shown below the chart, has ticked down to minus zone.


The minor resistance on the upside is now the 10 EMA - major is the M VWAP 34.
Bullish short term average crossings - is what the Longs will look for next.

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 23 April 2012 - Back to the Wall..

Nifty - End of Day - 23 April  2012     

The Wall as we saw it was 5180, and Nifty visited it last Monday (click)., and now again come this Monday, and we have revisit.

Short Term EMAs have crossed down, we are below the critical 34 EMA (EOD as above), old channel lines are back and MACD stays sub-zero.

In our weekend post - despite the Bullish noises (click) - we had observed that the Bears may run with Global weakness (see Looking Forward) - that happened today, with Futures falling all across.

The Wall held last week, because Global mood lifted (click) - let us watch that space now also.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 16 April to 20 April, 2012 - Bulls bounce off the Wall..

Recap:

We went into last week with a Bearish Overhang (click), Bulls had their back against the wall...

Bulls bounced off the Wall (click) and then despite Global Bear pressures (click) ended the week neutral.

One prospect for the coming week, was discussed and studied (click).

Lets analyze the Index with our three screens, to learn what lies ahead...

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 20 April, 2012. 

The RBG channel on the screen above, covers price action spanning 3 plus years.

The 34 EMA has been good support for the Monthly candles recently.

The 5 EMA's Bullish cross to above the 13 SMA is a given next month, if the Index stays above 5220. 

Bulls continue to be in charge of this long term screen.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 20 April, 2012.

We zoom into the Price action with the above screen and analyze the last 15 odd months.

We studied the Bullish Engulfing (last two candles), and the hope for a Three Outside Up (click) on Friday last.

We notice that the 5 EMA has bearishly crossed below the 13 SMA, and the price faces resistance at 13SMA.

Support at the 34 EMA, has been consistent.

Neither Bulls nor Bears, can claim supremacy on this screen.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 20 April, 2012.

The screen above has an RBG channel with 4 odd months data. We look to pinpoint the immediate action points here.

MACD remains sub zero even as the Histogram has started ticking in the plus.

Index seems to have made another Lower High, one has to see if the previous Higher Low will sustain.

After the Bullish crossovers and channel breaks (click) we have a 'Throwback' to Channel top (look through the free reference links below for more on this).

Throwbacks and Pullbacks:

http://piphut.com/2010/05/pullbacks-and-throwbacks/

http://www.activetradermag.com/index.php/c/Trading_Strategies/d/Throwbacks_and_pullbacks

Looking Forward:

Staying above the 34 EMA(EOD) is critical for Bulls.

The candle patterns on Nifty and Sensex (studied below) on EOW give the Bulls hope.

Bears have used global cues to beat back the Bulls recently - one needs to watch that.

Settlement week again and the sentiment seems to be changing towards the Bulls albeit mildly.

The BSE 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 16 April to 20 April 2012 - Bulls Pierce thro'

......Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction:

We do an weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets we study.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider...

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  

When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 

Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 

However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  

How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?

There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.

Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change...read on...

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - purple line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 20 April 2012  

Last 6 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (S)
2. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)
3. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal (K)
4. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)

5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (T)
6. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

Also marked with the blue arrows see...

2: The Chikou Span (purple line) has deflected off the price line, instead of crossing bearishly below it .. This is Bullish. 

3: The last candle has moved back into the Kumo - refer the Bearish Kumo breakout (B) 

3: Just as in last week, the Price is above the Kijun Sen and M VWAP 34 -  This is Bullish .

3: The last two candles form a Piercing Pattern (Bullish). FYI, we studied earlier (click) that the Nifty showed a Bullish Engulfing with the last two candles, at this same time frame.

4. A Bullish Senkou Span cross seems imminent - may be neutral. 

Here are some free reads for the weekend on the Pattern above...
http://www.thepatternsite.com/Piercing.html
http://www.moneycontrol.com/glossary/technicals/what-is-piercing-line-bullish-reversal-pattern_1680.html

Conclusion: Bulls have wrested back the advantage and have more than an even chance for a move up.