Analysis CNX Nifty with 60 min chart - 31 01 2012 - Support and Resistance

Nifty - 60 Min chart - 30 and 31  Jan  2012

In our ' Looking Forward ' for this week (post here) we opined that "..bears cannot really get themselves into the game unless the price stays below the 34 EMA or in the very short-term, below 5160.."

See above the action on Monday where the price closed below 5160 in the first hour - and proceeded on a Bear run. Today however the Bulls with a gap up persisted below the 5160 mark and post lunch cracked it and immediately shot the index up. Elementary example of resistance and support. Some free reads from the net on that subject, if you care to read 'em, pasted below..

http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2009/05/11/support-and-resistance-rules-levels-technical-analysis/

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/061801.asp#axzz1l2wPH3e4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_and_resistance

Meanwhile the 200 DMA as mentioned, continues to be resistance and we wait for the US close tonight, to see how the month closes.

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 27 Jan 2012

Recap: The Nifty closed above the crucial 34 EMA on the Weekly chart and is hanging on to the 200 DMA on the daily charts. Another good week for the bulls. Lets check out the action with our Triple Screen Analysis.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 27  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart:  After closing above the 5 EMA last week, this month's candle now is approaching oversold as seen on the indicator at the bottom of the EOM chart above. Let us now zoom into the highlighted area with Weekly candles as in the chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 20 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart: A firm close above the crucial 34 EMA is the fist step towards breaking a 13 month resistance line - our channel top - shown in red above. Notice also the resistance at the STS indicator at the bottom of above chart. For a sharper picture we focus now on the encircled area with line charts on the End of Day charts below.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 27  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart A: From being exactly at the blue line last week, price closed this week at the 200 DMA with a 'Hanging Man' candle pattern. Momentum is with the Bulls and Fib 76x is the target for medium-term Bullishness overall. The 34 EMA is downside support.

Looking Forward: Bulls may face resistance this week around the 200 DMA but bears cannot really get themselves into the game unless the price stays below the 34 EMA or in the very short-term, below 5160.  So that can be our range as marked on the EOD chart above. Despite the recent disconnect of the Nifty with US markets we should watch this month's close of the S&P 500 - read analysis posted here. 

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Déjà vu ?

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week  Jan' 23-27, 2012

Last week (post here) we saw the Price pull back and break into the Monthly channel's bottom line(red) - shown encircled above. 

This week's candle is a Doji. The combination of the last two candles remind one of a Bearish Doji Star (studied on the Nifty here), the channel in white is the one the S&P 500 follows now. Earlier channel is in blue. 

The Month's targets remain relevant. Intra-month movement by the price into the red Channel is same as in Nov'11.

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 27 01 2012 - Hanging on to the 200DMA

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 27  Jan  2012

We checked out some Candle patterns in the past couple of weeks. The one circled in red here. The one in Blue here. The Nifty saw and conquered the 200 DMA and is hanging on with the candle pattern shown in green :) Here are some weekend reads from some free resources on the net. The question now is ... Bullish continuation or Bearish reversal ?

Hanging Man


http://www.thepatternsite.com/HangingMan.html
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hangingman.asp#axzz1kf2t3zO9
http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs26.asp

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 24 01 2012 - Bulls peep above 34 EMA on week chart.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 24  Jan  2012

In our 'Looking Forward' section of the last post (here) - we needed the Bulls to break out of our range. The Nifty negated the Bearish Candle pattern yesterday and trading above last week's close early today,  used some fundamental reasons to break our range and eye the 200 DMA, meanwhile Price is just above the crucial 34 EMA on the EOW charts. The throwback to channel - a healthy need for a stronger up move - is still missing. 

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 20 Jan 2012.

Recap: We identified the point where Nifty would break out from (post here) and a candle stick pattern to go with it (post here). Post break out we redefined the channels Nifty would follow (post here) and ended the week with the Price exactly at the new channel's middle blue line (post here).  

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart: The bulls conquered the 5 EMA on the month chart. This chart is back to bull mode. Pull back to the green line looks possible from here. Zooming in we analyze the area encircled in blue next - with the 'End of Week' chart.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 20 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart: Our point last week (post here)on the indicator popping above the 20 mark was made. The Bulls went on a rampage all the way to the 34 EMA where they saw resistance exactly as marked. Bears look like they will not give up this zone without a fight. We now zoom in on the area encircled in red with the 'End of Day' Charts.

Nifty - End of Day Chart A - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart A:  The revised channels presented intra week (post here) worked out for the Bulls - the mid point was reached with precision as was the range exactly as marked. 

Nifty - End of Day Chart B - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart B:  A second channel possibility is presented - for both options one looks at a controlled throw back to the old channel top (black line) or Fib61x as the next event to be watched. The candle stick chart of the above has a point of note as we saw yesterday (post here).

Looking Forward: Bulls are in a strong place now. Its natural then that resistances in different time frames, as we saw above, should develop. Bulls now needs to break the upper end of the range shown on the EOD charts above to keep their momentum. Early sign would be trading above last week's close and negating the Bearish Doji Star. Failure gives Bears a toe hold into the week and post settlement (for the Jan'12 series), a chance to strike back. Intra Week updates shall be up.

Bearish Doji Star

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 20  Jan  2012 - Candles

The last time we paid attention to Candlesticks it paid off good (post here). So here is the next possibility. Suggested reading material below..

http://www.candlestickanalysis.com/bearish-doji-star-candlestick-pattern

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Monthly channel breach?

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week 16-20  Jan 2012.

We had observed last week (post here) that the price could break either of the channel lines it was between. Price closed above the red channel line which is the channel bottom of the monthly channel (from here). With 10 days to go for the month to end, bulls just need to keep it above the red line for monthly momentum to remain on their side.  Déjà vu ?

EOD Analysis - 20 Jan 2012 - CNX Nifty - Bulls get best among global gains.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 20  Jan  2012

Post break-out Bulls have taken Nifty to one of the best gains YTD - Globally. Notice in the highlighted area that the Price has EXACTLY touched the blue line of our channels presented in the last post here. A decent throw back expected. The Week end posts shall be up shortly...

EOD - 17 Jan 2012 - Nifty Analysis - Bulls break through..

In our 'Looking Forward' note (post here) we decided that 'A strong move above the resistances mentioned in the EOD (@4868) is what one needs to start the week on a Bullish note'.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17  Jan  2012

We got that move on Monday with the Nifty beating a weak start to end at 4874 just above the Fib61x (4868). Today the follow up gave even a lazy Bull, 100 odd Nifty points.... See the action spots shown inside the circle on the chart above. A Bullish Tri-Star Doji (post here) effect seems to be present.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17  Jan  2012 - New

The next set of channels on the EOD chart that we shall follow is given above. One expects a throw back to the Fib 61x or old channel top as a healthy part of the current up move. 

CNX Nifty: Tri-star Doji anyone?

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 13  Jan  2012 - Candles

Looks almost like three Dojis - that evokes memories of a Tri-star Doji - Here are the write ups from a free resource on the internet - Read the examples also :) Your call....

http://thepatternsite.com/TriStarBull.html
http://thepatternsite.com/TriStarBear.html

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - between the lines

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week 02-13  Jan 2012.

The last post on this topic anticipated correctly, that the space around the weekly channel top is where the action would be centered - See arrow. We have a green candle hedged by two lines, the week's channel top and the month's channel bottom. Resolution would invoke one of them giving way. The S&P is in an oversold and Bullish state right now. The month targets remain relevant. 

CNX Nifty: Week ending 13 Jan 2012.

Recap: We had a week where the EOD charts saw the Price touch an important Fibonacci level plus a Channel top line rather EXACTLY . The EOW charts had the price closing above the 200 DMA after some time. The Nifty is in a good place now for the Bulls. What next....

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 13  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart: As already noted we have the price nudging against a rather strong resistance cluster. a daily close above this with good volumes is what Bulls look for.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 13 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart: A close above the 200 DMA after so long is good for the Bulls as is the indicator showing above the green resistance/support line, if the indicator can now peek above the 20 mark - one sees the Bulls in serious business.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 13  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart: A Bullish Harami is what the last two candles indicate at the present moment ... but the point to notice is the up tick in the indicators and the green candle for the month.

Looking Forward: A strong move above the resistances mentioned in the EOD is what one needs to start the week on a Bullish note. The same resistance is important enough to act as the nemesis of the Bulls. Current picture is green for Nifty - so long as its above 4800 it remains green for the next couple of days at-least ... intra week updates shall be up.

Update - End of Day : 13 Jan 2012 - stand off !

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 13 01 2012

The Fib61x was mentioned - couple of posts ago - as being @4868 ... Nifty closes this week at 4866 :)

See also the precision with which the Price line touches the confluence of our red channel top and Fib61x .. Bulls and Bears face off - even!

So why is Fib61x so critical .. why indeed is Fib - Fibonacci revered by Technical analysts? Well it comes naturally (pun intended) or so it seems ... here is some weekend reading..

http://www.maths.surrey.ac.uk/hosted-sites/R.Knott/Fibonacci/fibnat.html

Update - End of Day : 12 Jan 2012

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 12 01 2012

Our last update (here) mentions that 'The red channel top and the Fib 61x are key resistances to Nifty'  From today's EOD chart one sees that the Price bounced off the Fib 61x. Staying above these resistances remains all important for Bulls. Meanwhile on the EOW chart, the price close is still above the 200 DMA - with one day left for the week to end - touch wood say the Bulls, Amen :)

Update - End of Day : 10 Jan 2012

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 10 01 2012

After one day of consolidation at the 5 EMA, the Nifty moved towards the Fib61x (@4868) - intra-day high today was 4856. The red channel top and the Fib 61x are key resistances to Nifty, which along with world markets is currently green. On the 'Weekly Chart' shown here, Nifty is currently above the 200 DMA ..as the Bulls would say, touch wood!

CNX Nifty: Week ending 06 Jan 2012.

Recap: 

Our bullish scenario for the first week of 2012 had Nifty moving above 4650. We analyzed the moves Nifty made thro' intra week posts on the 60 minute charts (3 posts) - Nifty moved past the 4650 resistance, was resisted at the 34 EMA and settled at 4747 for the week.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 06  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart:

The Nifty is in neutral zone compared to deep red last weekend. The strong resistance first at the 34 SMA and then at the 34 EMA had held the Bulls down. Moving past these, Fib 61x and the red channel top beckon. 

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 06 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart:

The Nifty spent yet another week closing below the all important 200 DMA. The STS too gives the Bulls a dismal picture. Since we are on the subject of DMA again and again, here is some read up that I found useful...

http://tradingsim.com/blog/displaced-moving-average/

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 06  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart:

The lower indicator on this chart has turned up finally giving the Bulls something to look up to. The 5 EMA remains the next barrier. The throw back to the green line after that?


Looking Forward: 
The week after a down spiral was bucked, always has some consolidation. Expect a clear trend to emerge a bit into the week. Intra-week posts shall be up.

Update with 60 Min - 06 01 2012 - Revisit the 34EMA..Bingo!

Nifty - 60 Minute Chart - 02 to 06 Jan 2012

In our last post on this subject (here) we concluded that the Nifty was good for another go at the blue 34EMA line - world cues willing. We got the world cues with a channel break (here) and as one can see below the purple arrow head - Bulls would have anticipated the 100 point move from sub 4700 to 34EMA around 4800 ! 

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Channel Break!

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 02 Jan 2012.

Our last post on this subject anticipated a 'retreat from' or 'break of' the top line of the falling channel shown above. We have a break. The break of the upper channel line of a weekly channel should have the price shooting up....however we observe from our monthly study (here) that all this is a pullback to the bottom of the monthly channel which is officially breached if Jan 2012 closes above 1303. So we wait for that event and watch the space around the weekly channel top where the action will now be centered.

Update with 60 Min - 05 01 2012 - Resisted near the 34EMA..

Nifty - 60 Minute Chart - 02 to 05 Jan 2012

In our last post (here) we saw the 34 EMA as the first line of resistance for the Nifty after it crossed the 4650 (red line in chart above) mark. Now we see that the Nifty has made about half a dozen attempts to cross the resistance about 15 odd points below the 34EMA (for convenience shown with a blue line at 4800, the 34 EMA on the EOD Chart is around 4800 for last couple of days).  Nifty is still good for a go at the blue line - world cues willing... check that out here

Update with 60 Min 03 01 2012 - Bucking the trend..

60 Minute Chart - 02 and 03 Jan 2012

We concluded the last post (here) with the view that the 4650 (red line in chart above) level was critical resistance for this week - notice how the price attempts to cross the line twice yesterday and fails - and gaps up today to get the Bulls celebrating with a nice rally to 4765. The alert Bull would have entered long today for a 90 point gain. On the EOD chart here the next resistance is the 34 EMA as shown then the Fib61x the higher end of our range shown. Nifty is now back to Neutral zone (from Bear zone last weekend) along with most of the world.

Nifty: Week ending - 30th December 2011

Recap:  We reviewed the past week's action here. From a neutral position coming into last week   the Nifty ended in the red but within our range .. world markets however ended the week in neutral zone.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 30 12 2011

Nifty End of Day Chart:  The bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA promises more downside - notice the resistance line on the STS indicator - same needs to be cracked by the Nifty before one sees the Bulls in some real action..

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 30 12 2011

Nifty End of Week Chart: This week's candle also closes below the crucial 200 Week MA - the resistance/support line on the STS has just about given in. Both challenges the Bulls would have to face next week.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 30 12 2011

Nifty End of Month Chart: Bear zone and falling without a relief last couple of months...one looks for the 5 EMA to be retaken by the Bulls here.


Looking Forward:  Going into 2012 - Nifty is in deep red while the SP500 and Europe show a neutral color. Bucking the trend and moving above 4650 one expects the Nifty to attempt the higher end of our range (EOD chart) for the week. Current trend however should take it to the Fib50x.