Trade, Live and Thrive

Friday, February 24, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 24 02 2012 - Bingo :) its Fibonacci Support

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 24 Feb 2012

With a low of 5406 and close at 5429 the Nifty took support at the Fibonnaci 74.6% (5414).

It however remained below the 5454 that we saw strength for the Bulls at, in our last weekend's post (see Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD) and Looking forward sections of the post here).

Overall a decent consolidation - long pending and it very nicely took support at the Fib 76x.as we expected.

Weekend posts are on their way...

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 22 02 2012 - Channel Top Resistance

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 22 Feb 2012

With our weekend analysis (see 'Looking Forward' here) showing that Nifty faced resistance of a weekly and daily channel TOP - we smelled the consolidation in the air. The Bears made an easy 100 points today. Now to see the follow up - if the Fib 76x holds up the fall.

Monday, February 20, 2012

CNX Nifty 'End of Week' Technical Analysis: After week 13-17 Feb, 2012

Recap: Last week one saw the Fall of the Fibonacci 76.4% marked on the EOD charts (post here). We noted that our channel drawn a month ago - was exactly followed by the Price (post here) and in the same post, we also observed that some crossovers indicate the Bull Market's return, then we studied moving average crossovers - both for and against.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 17 Feb 2012 - each candle is ONE MONTH

Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): Around mid December we had observed (post here) that a pullback to the Green line was possible (highlighted with a blue oval above) - at that Bearish time it looked a remote possibility - today that line looks tantalizingly close. This month's candle can touch the green line at approx 5747 and next month's candle approx 5838. Now, we shall zoom in for a closer look at the area marked in the blue rectangle - with the EOW chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 17 Feb 2012 - each candle is ONE WEEK

Nifty - End of Week Chart (EOW): Last week's candle has exactly touched our channel top (highlighted with a blue oval above). Cracking last week's high should give us our new channel (shown in black) and the targets discussed in the EOM above. A consolidation around the channel top is healthy for the up move. We now study the area marked inside the blue rectangle with the EOD charts below.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17 Feb 2012 - DAILY close price in a line

Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD): We are near channel top here also as observed earlier (post here). The next leg of the up move or consolidation should be watched in sync with EOW and EOM notes above. Bulls remain strong above 5454. Throw back should be held by the Fib 76x line.

Looking forward: Channel tops, both on EOD and EOW, smell of consolidation. Bulls however have enough momentum to take the climb into a steeper channel up. Fundamental reasons (Budget and PIGS) may queer the pitch. Battle lines between Bears and Bulls are drawn for now, at the channel lines as studied above.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 17 Feb 2012 - Last year's high in sight...

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week: 13 Feb to 17 Feb, 2012

The S&P 500 continues its steep rate of climb - like we observed last week (post here), the middle channel line is the current resistance. Bulls failed around these levels last year (see candles of April - May 2011) and that cluster of resistances also play a role in next week's action. 1376 is the middle channel resistance for next week and the number, the Bulls should look to beat.

Friday, February 17, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 17 02 2012 - Channels and Crossovers..

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17 Feb 2012

It was about a month ago that we defined the channel you see on the EOD above (post here). We have a precise climax at the channel top happening now - 800 odd Nifty points later.

The crossover of the 34 EMA to above the 200 DMA on the EOD has significance from a long term view. So does the 5 EMA - 13 SMA cross on the EOM mentioned last week (post here). They usually signify the return of the Bull market.

Here are some free reads on MA crossover for the weekend....

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:arthur_hill_on_movin
http://www.traderslog.com/moving-average-crossovers/

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.