Trade, Live and Thrive

Sunday, September 28, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Support - Week 1 of October 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 26 Sept'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 26 Sept'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 26 Sept'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Index continues to makes huge Waves as a result of previous High Wave candle pattern #W1.
Throwback of Price to old EOD channel's top #D3 - fails to take off - Index dives to bounce off Day Channel's Bottom #D1.
September candle closing above 7954 (August Close) sets up the possibility of a Evening Doji Star #M1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls close below support at the 5 EMA, and bounce off the 13 SMA instead - EOW #W1.
Bears send back the Bulls near the red channel top #D3.

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD are Bearishly crossed #D1.

Indicators:

MACD & Volume divergence to Price is huge #D2.
TRD #M1 faces resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace.

Wrap:

Bulls come up from below the October Wall (7912) to close the week near the September Wall (7965), Bears hold old channel highs #D3.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

High Wave candle (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) pattern's effect is on #W1.
Possibility of the Evening Doji Star (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) happening, after September candle forms, is to be watched for #D3.

Support & Resistance:

Index support that the bears look to crack, is the 13 SMA on the EOW (7836) #W1.
Index faces resistance at the recent High (8161) #D3.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.

Indicators:

STS staying in the overbought, will work for the Bulls #W2.

Wrap (edited):

Bulls look to break the old channel top #D3 and stay above 8161 #D3.
Bears seek a September Close above the August Close (for a Evening Star Possibility) and Index below the 5 EMA #W1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Bounce - Week 1 of October 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 26 Sept'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls again close above the Tenkan Sen after bouncing off previous High Zone #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap higher #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gets closer #W2

Wrap: Index come up from below to close above the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

A Bearish Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need couple of months #W1.
Bulls need to hold above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - converging is good for Bears #W3.

Wrap: Bears seek to again try getting the index below the Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to keep above previous Highs and attempt new ATH(All Time High) #W2.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Say ...

Monday, September 22, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pullback to Channel - Week 4 of September 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 19 Sept'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 19 Sept'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 19 Sept'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Long Term Bullish Engulfing becoming a 3 outside up, is an option by month end - see the last 3 Month candles #M1.
Pullback of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1 - happens as studied.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls take support near the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
After a new ATH, bulls sent back from the EOD channel bottom #D1.

Moving Averages:

5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bullishly on the EOD #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bears lose ground as Index pulls up to channel bottom #D1.
Bulls take off from support at 13 SMA (EOW) as studied and make a new ATH #W1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Pull back (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1 - to be watched to assess Bull / Bear strength.
Bullish Engulfing on long term charts can evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) - to be watched for until month end #M1.

Support & Resistance:

EOD channel Bottom #D1 and the ATH, are resistances.
The 13 SMA on the EOW (1976) is the Support Bulls would want to defend #W1.

Moving Averages:

A slip below the 5 EMA on the EOW(1995) is what Bulls would want to avoid now #W1.

Indicators:

STS holding in the over bought, works for the Bulls #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls should look to defend the 5 EMA on the EOW and make new ATHs #D1.
Bears would try to complete the Pull back and continue with the fall #D1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls scale up Peak 2 - Week 4 of September 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 19 Sept'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls rise above Peak 2 with a green week #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen same - both climb #W2.
Gap between Senoku Span A-B same - both climb #W3.

Wrap: Bulls scale higher at Peak 2 #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Previous Highs are a strong support #W2.

Wrap: Bulls push for a higher highs, Bears seek to get below previous Highs #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.