Sunday, September 28, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Support - Week 1 of October 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 26 Sept'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 26 Sept'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 26 Sept'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

  • Index continues to makes huge Waves as a result of previous High Wave candle pattern #W1.
  • Throwback of Price to old EOD channel's top #D3 - fails to take off - Index dives to bounce off Day Channel's Bottom #D1.
  • September candle closing above 7954 (August Close) sets up the possibility of a Evening Doji Star #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close below support at the 5 EMA, and bounce off the 13 SMA instead - EOW  #W1.
  • Bears send back the Bulls near the red channel top #D3.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD are Bearishly crossed #D1.
  • MACD & Volume divergence to Price is huge #D2. 
  • TRD  #M1 faces resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace.

Bulls come up from below the October Wall (7912) to close the week near the September Wall (7965), Bears hold old channel highs #D3.

Looking Forward into this Week:

  • High Wave candle (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) pattern's effect is on #W1.
  • Possibility of the Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) happening, after September candle forms, is to be watched for #D3.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index support that the bears look to crack, is the 13 SMA on the EOW (7836) #W1.
  • Index  faces resistance at the recent High (8161) #D3. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
  • STS staying in the overbought, will work for the Bulls #W2.

Wrap (edited):
Bulls look to break the old channel top #D3 and stay above 8161 #D3.
Bears seek a September Close above the August Close (for a Evening Star Possibility) and Index below the 5 EMA #W1.