Trade, Live and Thrive

Friday, April 6, 2012

The BSE 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 02 April to 06 April 2012 - Bulls stay in..

Quick Reference :

The Tenkan Sen - red line,

The Kijun Sen - blue line,

The Chikou Span - purple line,

The Senkou Span A - black line,

The Senkou Span B - grey line,

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 02 to 06 April 2012

Last 6 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: For details see here and here :

1. Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal
2. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
3. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal
4. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal

5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
6. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal

In our study, we consider as important, the signals of the previous posts, summarized above.

Here are what, the above medium term chart, tells us this week.

A. This week's green candle was resisted at the Tenkan Sen (red line) - breaching this line is a preliminary signal of trend reversal in the medium term.

B. The candle was completely within the Kumo - neutral zone. Last week it took support on the Kijun Sen and MVWAP. Strength to Bulls.

C. The Senkou Span A&B (black and grey lines) look like they may cross soon. If the price at the time of Cross is still within the Kumo, this cross would be neutral.

In a screen which was all Bear, couple of weeks ago, we have the Bulls with their noses firmly in, so far as the medium term view goes.

BSE 30: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Day Chart - 02 to 06 April 2012

Last 5 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Day Chart (EOD) in brief:

1. Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal

2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal

3. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bearish Signal

4. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

5. Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

In our study we also consider as important, the previous signals, summarized above.

As anticipated last week (click for post) we had an up move after the Senkou Span Cross was found 'not bearish' but neutral. The other points of interest for the week are...

D. The Chikou Span (purple) is interestingly poised for another go at the price line.

E. Price which breached the Tenkan Sen (red line) last week, did move up after that.

F. The Senkou Span (Black and grey lines) Cross that we got, was Neutral, as the price was inside the Kumo last week.

G. The Kijun Sen (blue line) Cross, also turned out to be neutral, for the same reason.

I: Price is resisted once again at the Moving VWAP.

Bulls and Bears are well matched, in the short term based on last week's action, a slim bias, favors the Bulls.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 02 April to 06 April 2012 - Bears get a toehold..

Quick Reference :

The Tenkan Sen - red line,

The Kijun Sen - blue line,

The Chikou Span - purple line,

The Senkou Span A - black line,

The Senkou Span B - grey line,

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 06 April 2012

Last 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: For details see here and here :

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

2. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal

5. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal
In our study, we consider as important, the signals of the previous posts, summarized above.

The inputs we get from the medium term view this week are..

A. Last week's candle took support on the Tenkan Sen (red line) - breaching this line would be the first indication of trend change from medium term view.

B. The Kijun Sen (Blue line) has started a sharp up move towards the price line.

C. The Chikou Span (Purple line) has started dipping towards the Kumo.

Bulls are still in dominance, from a medium term perspective.

DJI 30: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Day Chart - 06 April 2012

Last 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Day Chart (EOD) in brief:
1. Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal
2. Flat kumo: Bearish Signal
3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal
4. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal
5. Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal
In our study we also consider as important, the previous signals, summarized above.

Do notice, that the 34 period Moving VWAP, is now in dotted Blue, and that the Price has dipped below it. This week's inputs...
D. The Chikou Span (purple line) is just about touching the price.
E. Price has crossed below the Tenkan Sen (red line) - indicating possible trend change to bearish in the short term.
F: Price has closed just above the Kijun Sen (blue).
G: Divergences on the Oscillator indicate weakness, however the oscillator hangs well above zero.

Bears have gained a toehold, in last week's action, in the short term view.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, S&P 500 - 04 April 2012 - Bulls on Channel Support..

Nifty - End of Day - 04 April 2012

We concluded Triple Screen Technical Analysis, last weekend (click to see), with a note that the short term MAs viz. 5 EMA, 10 EMA and 13 SMA, be watched closely ( EOD). So here is an intra-week update.

Bears did press home their mild advantages, the last three candles in the circle marked belong to the first 3 days of this week. As you can see the Bears have closed below our short term MAs and taken support exactly on our channel's bottom line.

Bulls remain in the game, if above the channel bottom. We look at channel break, or bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA, to give us an indication of Bear strength.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 03 April 2012 - Bulls Steady..

Nifty - End of Day - 03 April 2012

We ended our weekend analysis (Click to see), with the reminder to check out the Senkou Span Cross, on the EOD, with Ichimoku Cloud Indicator. As you would have known by now, the Bearish Cross happened when the Price was in the Kumo and hence is neutral. Neutral also is today's Kijun Sen Cross for the same reason. We wait for the Index get above the Kumo, next.

Our EOD chart above, with realigned channel lines, show that the Bulls have retained control, by staying above the Wall and 34 EMA. Now that the 5 EMA, has crossed above the 13 SMA, and also the 34 EMA, Bulls should eye the Fib76x next.

The only cause for concern for Bulls, from the chart above, is that MACD hangs below zero. Bears might sneak in on that weakness.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 March to 30 March, 2012 - Relief Green as we wanted..

Recap:

Our view 'Looking Forward' last weekend (click for post), was 'After 5 red weeks, if a relief rally is coming up, this is one such time'
As the EOW chart below shows, we have a green candle for last week !

Intra Week, we saw the Nifty take support at the 200 DMA, and we suggested that the 5 EMA-200 DMA range had to break (click for post).

Bears failed to crack the 200 DMA on Thursday, then the Bulls pushed above the 5 EMA, to color this week's candle green, on Friday

What next?

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 30 M arch 2012

Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 Month's price action (or) EOM:

A Bearish Harami is in place, with the completed red candle of March.

Lower volume for a red month, is Bullish.

Close above the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, that we track is also good for bulls.

Revision of Bearish Harami, at these links or elsewhere, is a good idea.

http://thepatternsite.com/HaramiBear.html
http://www.traderslog.com/bearish-harami-weekly-candlestick/
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bear/harami_bearish.cfm

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 30 March 2012

Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 Week's price action (or) EOW:

Bulls closed with a green candle, above the 34 EMA

Support was at the Trend line shown in black, famous for being a 13 month Resistance, once.

An 'ok' Hammer is the closest we can describe the last candle as, here are some reads.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/Hammer.html
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bull/hammer_bullish.cfm

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 30 March 2012

Short Term View (or) Day Chart, with closing prices of each day in a line (or) EOD:

The price has clearly closed below the channel bottom, and then come back, to close above it.

The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are still in a bearish Cross.

The MACD is below the zero line, as is the Histogram.

Price has closed, above all the 'Moving Averages(MA)' we track on this screen.

Looking Forward:
Currently the Index is neutral, across all three time frames.

Keeping above the Wall for this month (5180), & above the falling 34 EMA, Nifty stays Bullish.

Below the 200 DMA, if the bears manage to get there, Fib 61x is the next target.

The EOD chart of the Ichimoku study (Click) should be watched for the Senkou Span Cross.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.