Trade, Live and Thrive

Saturday, August 2, 2014

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Monday, July 28, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Doji - Week 5 of July 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 25 July'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 25 July'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 25 July'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bullish Harami Pattern fails to turn into a Three Inside Up - missing the mark by a narrow 6 point margin #W1.
Last candle on the weekly chart is a Doji #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Index holds below the 1975 mark early in the week, Bulls take support on the Weekly 5 EMA #W1 and clear this mark to make a new ATH, Bears bring the index back to the mark by Friday - making a Doji.

Moving Averages:

The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are bullishly crossed on the EOD #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 stays in the over bought #W2.
TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls retain control of all Screens and make a new ATH - Bears force index back down to make a Doji week #W1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Doji on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links here, here or elsewhere).
Three Inside Up (Study links here, here or elsewhere), is not active on the medium term chart #W1.

Support & Resistance:

EOD channel Bottom is the support while the current ATH #D1 is resistance for the week.

Moving Averages:

5 EMA on the EOW #W1 at a Index reading of 1971 and 1942 the 13 SMA (weekly) are levels the Bulls would want to defend.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4, staying back in the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to go above the last ATH i.e. 1991 - Bears want to break the EOD channel bottom #D1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - YoYo 8 - Week 5 of July 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 25 July'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take support near the Tenkan Senm Bears get a red week making it a 8 week YoYo of green and red #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen increases #W2.
Gap between Senoku Span A-B also moves up #W3.

Wrap: Bulls use the Tenkan Sen as support #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls continue to hunt for new ATHs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.

Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs above the Tenkan Sen, Bears want life below the Tenkan Sen after 8 YoYo weeks #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls on Pasture - Week 5 of July 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 25 July'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 25 July'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 25 July'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Last week's Bullish Harami Pattern turns into a Three Inside Up by a hair thin margin - however the Bulls get a new ATH #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls get their grass by reaching the monthly pivot's R1 and making a new ATH as studied, The 5 EMA on the EOD provides support all week #D1.

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD crossed bullishly #D1.

Indicators:

MACD shows clear divergence with Price for the 3rd consecutive wave, MACD moves above its MA #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls control all screens and even graze briefly in new Pastures, while Bears defend the EOD Channel Top #D1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Bullish Three Inside Up, formed by a slender 10 point margin (Study links here, here or elsewhere), is active #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bears will want to get back below the 5 EMA on the EOW (7641) #W1, while Bulls look to be above R1 on the Month Pivot #D1.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's rate of climb is decelerating #D1.

Indicators:

MACD divergence to Price looks good for Bears, while the MACD staying above its MA helps Bull cause #D2.

Wrap:

Bears look to defend the Day Channel Top #D1 and slip below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1, Bulls seek to be above R1 on the July pivot and make new ATHs #D1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Fold - Week 5 of July 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 25 July'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls defending the recent lows manage to edge above the blue Tenkan Sen line #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steadies up #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also steadies #W2

Wrap: Bulls retake the Tenkan Sen, Bears defend recent Highs #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a few months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bears want to defend the recent Highs and get the index below the Tenkan Sen again #W2.

Wrap: Bears look to keep below recent highs and get the index below the Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to stay above the Tenkan Sen and reach the ATH #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.