Trade, Live and Thrive

Sunday, April 1, 2012

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 26 March to 30 March 2012 - and we got our green...

Quick Reference :

The Tenkan Sen - red line,

The Kijun Sen - blue line,

The Chikou Span - purple line,

The Senkou Span A - black line,

The Senkou Span B - grey line,

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Signals studied in the past few weeks on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: For details see here and here.

Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal
Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
The kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal

For the latest study click this link

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 30 March 2012

Ichimoku Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW of the BSE 30:

Last week (click to see post) we felt it was time for some 'relief green' and we got it (see last candle above)

Price took support on the Kijun Sen (blue line) and MVWAP.

Price is nudging into the Kumo.

A Bullish Senkou Span Cross is a few weeks away.

Other signals given above the EOW chart, add to this study.

To see the finer details, we use the EOD chart below.

BSE 30 - End of Day Chart - 30 March 2012

Ichimoku Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD of the BSE 30:

A Bearish Senkou Span Cross is nearly on - could touch and go too.

Price is in the Kumo.

Price has just crossed the Tenkan Sen, after being drawn down by the Flat Senkou Span B, and bouncing off it.

Resistance is the Kijun Sen and MVWAP.

Looks good for an up move, if the Senkou Cross is not Bearish.

Saturday, March 31, 2012

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 26 March to 30 March 2012

Quick Reference :

The Tenkan Sen - red line,

The Kijun Sen - blue line,

The Chikou Span - purple line,

The Senkou Span A - black line,

The Senkou Span B - grey line,

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Signals studied in the past few weeks on DJI - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: For details see here and here.

Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal

For the latest study click this link

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 30 March 2012

Ichimoku Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW of the DJI 30:

We have summarized the studies of the past few weeks, on the EOW and its shown, above the chart.

Th Index is in Bull Mode.

This weeks input, seems to be, that the last three candles, show a flat trajectory.
The Tenkan San is flat as is the Kijun Sen.

The coming week however, should see some action..

To get a finer picture, we have added a EOD study as below...

DJI 30 - End of Day Chart - 30 March 2012

Ichimoku Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD of the DJI 30:

The Index was in Bull Mode on this chart. The last two candles show that....

a) the Price line has taken support on the Kijun Sen (and MVWAP) and

b) crossed the Tenkan Sen.

This continues the Mode as Bullish.

On the flip side are the obvious divergences on the Oscillator.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 March to 30 March, 2012 - Déjà vu !

Recap:

The Bulls moved the index up last week, keeping the momentum with them. The Bears, while finishing the week with their last straw in hand, did lose out on the third Bearish Harami in the last two years (see EOW). To answer the question asked last weekend (click here to go to post), Bulls say, Déjà vu !

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 30 March 2012

Long Term View (or) Month Chart with closing prices of each month in a line (or) EOM:

1,456 is the SP 500 reading that should take out the Channel's red Top line in April. Going by the current state of health, this chart looks good for that.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 30 March 2012

Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 Week's price action (or) EOW:

We saw that the third time in a row the Bulls bought into the Bearish Harami on the chart above. The 5 EMA acted as take off point for Bulls this week. The RSI being just below the 3 MA, is the only saving grace for the Bears, their straw in hand, as they go into next week and month.

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 30 March 2012

Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 Day's price action (or) EOD:

SP 500 ended above all the short term MAs, that we study, as above. The Index edged down, and closed below our yellow day Channel's middle line. Rate of climb, is therefore a tad down.

Looking Forward:

The Bears would seek to press home their mild advantages, as studied in the EOW and EOD. The Bulls are on a roll, and only getting knocked below the Yellow Day channel, would put them in a spot of bother. So one watches the short term MAs - EMA 5, EMA 10 and SMA 13 with a careful eye in the coming week.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 28 March 2012 - Pull back to Channel Bottom..

Nifty - End of Day - 28 March 2012

Our weekend take (click here for post) was that the Nifty would take support at the 200 DMA if it broke below channel bottom...Nifty has stayed 25 odd points above the 200 DMA after breaking the channel bottom - green line.

The index also pulled back to the green line and fell again. Going forward, the immediate range to break is the 200 DMA to 5 EMA.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Channel bottom..

Recap:
Last week (posted here), we figured that the US and European markets would fall, and this would put pressure on Indian markets.
They did fall and we got red candles, on the S&P and Nifty, last week.
We also tracked the market's moves with intra week, EOD updates.
The Nifty ended below the crucial 34 EMA on the EOD charts.
Where to next?

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 23 M arch 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 Month's price action): Long Term
This month's red candle is above the 5 EMA and is arguing with the 13 SMA, we find that the Month chart still presents a positive picture.
The developing 'Bearish Harami' on the last two candles, is the only small worry for the Bull.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 23 March 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): Medium Term
A fifth red candle happened last week.
The support was again near the rising 34 EMA.
After a lower High in the previous week's Candle, we have a higher Low with last week's candle.
Bulls can look for some relief staying above the 34 EMA (EOW).

Nifty - End of Day - 23 March 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Day/EOD Chart (closing prices of each Day in a line): Short Term
We posted in our last EOD analysis (here) that we were at channel bottom.
As one can see, the Nifty seems to be taking support at the green line in the chart above.
The last touch and go (5 EMA/13 SMA) resulted in the bearish crossover continuing.
We are still below the 34 EMA.
The falling 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA.

Looking Forward:
Staying above our channel bottom, the Nifty would aim for the wall at 5484.
If the bottom fails, the next support is the 200 DMA, as marked.
Settlement weeks usually produce some solid 'action time'.
After 5 red weeks, if a relief rally is coming up, this is one such time.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.