Monday, August 31, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Neckline Tussle -Week 1 of September 2015.

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


  • The Head & Shoulder formation, that we studied for the last few weeks, completes. Index dives below the neckline and closes below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace drawn on the EOW Screen. 
  • Weekly candle resembles a Pin-bar #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The Index takes support well above the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM screen.  The mid-line of the Month Channel #M1, remained as resistance last week.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bearishly, on all three Screens as of last week's close.
  • On the Month chart, TRD slips below the 50% mark #M2.


Bears dive hard to below the neckline of the bearish H&S pattern we were studying, and get control of all three screens mid-week.
Bulls come back, to regain control of the short term screen and close above the daily 5 EMA #D1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

  • Bearish H&S pattern succeeding #W1,  is still a possibility (Study Links herehere or elsewhere), control of the 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040), drawn on the EOW screen, is critical this week #W1.
  • Studying the Pin-bar on the weekly charts is important (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls have support at the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM #M1, Resistance is at the blue Mid-line of the Weekly Channel #W1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active and thriving #D1.
  • The critical 5 EMA & 13 SMA, on the Week Screen would cross bullishly if the index closes above 8575 this week #W1.
  • The STS staying crossed below its MA, and reaching the oversold is good for Bears #W2.

Wrap :
Bulls, look to the pin-bar, to get them going towards 8575 #M1.
Bears despite the pause in momentum, aim to stay below 8040 and drive towards the green bottom line of the Weekly Chart (7333) #W1.