S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pin Bar - Week 1 of September 2015.

Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• The 'Closing Black Marubozu' of the previous week produces deep dive and  a come back, resulting in a pin bar candle for last week #W1.

Support & Resistance:

• Support was at the MVWAP 34 as marked on the Month Screen #M1 and exactly as studied in the previous post. Resistance for the Bears (at week close) was around the previous low, marked by the mid-line of the Day Channel #D1.

Moving Averages:  

• The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the month screen, shows a bullish cross with one day to go, for month close #M1.

Indicators:

• RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year #W2, finally goes oversold and now points up.  

Wrap:

Bears continue their dive from the previous week, run into our mark, the MVWAP34 on the EOM, and then return the index to the previous low #D1.
Bull action produces a pin-bar for the week #W1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Pin-bar candle on the Medium Term Charts is active (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) #W1.

Support & Resistance: 

• MVWAP 34 on the long term screen (once again) is the support that Bulls want to stay above #M1 . Index has resistance at the daily 200 SMA  #D1. 
• We have a new and less steep, Month Channel (blue) #M1.

Moving Averages:

• On the EOM, the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA, will maintain a Bullish Cross, if August 2015, closes above 1978 #W1,

Indicators:

• TSI is near the 50% retrace #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls look to use the pin-bar to catapult their way back above the daily 200 SMA.

Bears look to force their way below the monthly MVWAP34 #M1.

Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Bounce - Week 1 of September 2015.

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the previous post)

After the Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross, Bears dive below the Kumo, and close just above it #W2.

Chikou Span, remains below the Price line #W1.

Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, minuscule #W3.

Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows sharply #W3.

Wrap: 

Bulls after making it halfway to the Kumo last week, have another sharp fall and do well to close above the Kumo #W2. 

Bears again finally take advantage of the Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen #W2, with a massive fall, but fail to conquer the Kumo on closing basis.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span is crossed  below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) #W1.

Index coming back to close above the Kumo, gives the Bulls some vigour #W2.

Gap between the Senkou Span A & B around the last Price point is narrow and is getting narrow at W3. This means a thin Kumo - and a weak support for the Bulls for now #W3.

The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.

Wrap:

Despite the Price bounce off the Kumo, Bears can use the advantage of the recent red on the screen #W1, #W2, to attempt a retake of the Kumo.

Bulls see the Kumo as the major support from where they can aim for the Tenkan Sen #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Neckline Tussle -Week 1 of September 2015.

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

 

Patterns:

• The Head & Shoulder formation, that we studied for the last few weeks, completes. Index dives below the neckline and closes below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace drawn on the EOW Screen. 
• Weekly candle resembles a Pin-bar #W1.

Support & Resistance:

• The Index takes support well above the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM screen.  The mid-line of the Month Channel #M1, remained as resistance last week.

Moving Averages: 

• The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bearishly, on all three Screens as of last week's close.

Indicators:

• On the Month chart, TRD slips below the 50% mark #M2.

Wrap:

Bears dive hard to below the neckline of the bearish H&S pattern we were studying, and get control of all three screens mid-week.
Bulls come back, to regain control of the short term screen and close above the daily 5 EMA #D1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Bearish H&S pattern succeeding #W1,  is still a possibility (Study Links here, here or elsewhere), control of the 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040), drawn on the EOW screen, is critical this week #W1.
• Studying the Pin-bar on the weekly charts is important (Study Links here, here or elsewhere).

Support & Resistance:

• Bulls have support at the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM #M1, Resistance is at the blue Mid-line of the Weekly Channel #W1.

Moving Averages: 

• The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active and thriving #D1.
• The critical 5 EMA & 13 SMA, on the Week Screen would cross bullishly if the index closes above 8575 this week #W1.

Indicators:

• The STS staying crossed below its MA, and reaching the oversold is good for Bears #W2.

Wrap :

Bulls, look to the pin-bar, to get them going towards 8575 #M1.
Bears despite the pause in momentum, aim to stay below 8040 and drive towards the green bottom line of the Weekly Chart (7333) #W1. 

China SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Rescue - Week 1 of September 2015.

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the previous post)

Bulls get a rescue bounce, at the Kumo #W1.
Chikou Span gets below the Price line #W1.
Gap between the Senkou Span A & B narrows further #W3.


Wrap: After the Bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2, previously, Index sees a bearish Chikou Span cross #W1.
Bulls find support at the Kumo #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Bearish Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen Cross (its called a 'weak bearish signal' as it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e. above the Kumo) works well for the Bears #W2.
Bears now need to get the Price line back in the Kumo, to keep dominance of this screen #W1. 
Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, around the next few week's candles and at #W3, is relatively narrow - making a thin Kumo and a fragile support for the Bulls.


Wrap:
Closing the week with a Bearish cross into the Kumo #W1, plus an even lower low, is what the Bears hope to do.
Getting back above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2, with a re-cross by the Chikou Span, above the Price line #W1, is the priority for Bulls.

Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - Higher Highs and Lower Lows - Week 1 of September 2015.

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the previous post)

Bears reply with a lower low to the Bull's Higher High (May 2015) #W1, #W2.
Chikou Span points up, towards  the Price line #W1.
Gap between the Senkou Span A & B,  wide and steady #W3.
Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, narrow - they remain crossed bearishly #W2.


Wrap: 
Bulls, with all Signals against them, fight back and make a green candle #W1, #W2. 
Bears after all signals turn red, in their favour, make significant - lower low #W2.


Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span reaching the Price line, would take a couple of weeks at current rate, this is good for Bears #W1.
Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide at #W3 & above the last Price point, making a thick Kumo - and a strong resistance to an up-move #W3.
Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, are in a Bearish cross, the gap between them is narrow - Bulls hope for a re-cross next #W2.
Index reaching the 'Tenkan Sen', is the next Bull hope #W2.


Wrap:
Staying above the previous low, and reaching the Tenkan Sen #W2, is the next Bull task.
Dominant Bears seek more red weeks, and a wider gap between the 'Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen'.

Say....

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Marubozu - Week 4 of August 2015.

Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• High Wave on the Weekly charts the previous week, is followed by resolution of 2095 , with Bulls holding above this level earlier in the week. Once Bears closed below 2095, it was a a massive crash to a new low for this year, with a Weekly 'Closing Black Marubozu' #W1.

Support & Resistance:

• Support finally came with a close near 1978 (the point where the 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bearishly on the Month Charts #M1). Resistance for the Bears was our mark 2095. 

Moving Averages:  

• The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on all screens, show a bearish cross.

Indicators:

• RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year #W2, finally reaches the oversold.  

Wrap:

Bears after a futile break below the 200 SMA, the previous week #D1, returned this week, to crash the index below all channels and MAs we track. 
Bulls hung out above out mark 2095, earlier in the week - but with a straight fall to 1971, they have lost the plot.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Closing Black Marubozu, on the Medium Term Charts is active (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) #W1.

Support & Resistance: 

• MVWAP 34 on the long term screen (around 1850) #M1 is the support that Bulls want to stay above. Index has resistance at the previous Weekly Channel bottom line (Orange) #W1. 

Moving Averages:

• On the EOM, the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA, will maintain a Bullish Cross, if this month closes above 1978 #W1,

Indicators:

• TSI touches the 50% retrace #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls want life back inside the Week Channel #W1

Bears look to drive down to the monthly MVWAP34 #M1.

Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Bear Cross - Week 4 of August 2015.

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the previous post)

A month after the Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross, Bears finally cross below these lines #W2.
Chikou Span, crosses below the Price line #W1.
Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow and steady #W3.


Wrap: 
Bulls losing the strong supports of last week, hold the fall well above the Kumo #W2. 
Bears finally take advantage of the Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen #W2,, with a massive red week, and close below these lines

Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span is now below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) #W1.
Index finally closing below the Kijun Sen & Tenkan Sen, gives the Bears the impetus #W2.
Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide, making a thick Kumo - and a strong future support #W3.
The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.


Wrap:
Finally  taking advantage of the Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen #W2, with two massive red weeks, the next Bear plan is to reach the Kumo.
Bulls see the Kumo as the next major support from where they can aim for the Tenkan Sen #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bear Shoulder - Week 4 of August 2015.

 

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

 

Patterns:

• Head & Shoulder formation, that we studied for the last two weeks,  continues as a possibility #W1. Bears attempting the 'Right Shoulder' to 'Neckline' fall now.

Support & Resistance:

• The Index takes support well above the August Pivot's S2 and the mid-line of the Month Channel #M1 remained untouched last week.

Moving Averages: 

• The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bearishly only on the Day Screen as of last week's close #D1.

Indicators:

• On the Day chart, MACD and the histogram are below zero #D2.

Wrap:

Bears retain control of the Day Screen, and took the index to near the month pivot's S2 #M1, last week.
Bulls close the week below S1 on the monthly Pivot #M1, but with a tentative hold on the Medium Term and Long Term Screens.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• H&S pattern on the Day Chart is still possibility worth a study #D1 (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) - Neckline for activation of the pattern is currently around 7900.

Support & Resistance:

• Bulls have support at the S2 of the Monthly Pivot #M1, Resistance is at the 5 EMA on the Medium Term Screen (8444) #W1.

Moving Averages: 

• The Death Cross is active as long as the 50 SMA stays below the 200 SMA - gap between these MAs, is increasing #D1.
• The critical 5 EMA & 13 SMA, on the Week Screen would cross bearishly if the index closes below 8228 this week #W1.

Indicators:

• Bears hope that the STS would stay crossed below its MA, and reach the oversold, this week #W2.

Wrap :

Bulls, wish for life above 8228 and hope to colour the Month Candle green, this week #M1.
Bears gaining momentum, aim to reach the Neckline (7900) as studied above #W1.