Monday, May 18, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 76.8% Fibo Supports - Week 3 of May 2015.

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

  • Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - touch the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' #W1 and keep the index below the daily 200 SMA #D1. 
  • Bulls make a minor Pull-back to new Day Channel's mid-line #D1, then close above the weekly 50 SMA, and produce another weekly 'High Wave' candle #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index takes support at the 76.8% Fibo retrace #W1 and the mid-line of the Medium Term Channel to close above the 50 SMA #W1. 
  • Resistance was around the Weekly 5 EMA #W1, and the new Day Channel's mid-line #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Monthly charts, are close enough for a Bullish deflection or a Bearish cross #W1.
  • MACD crosses its MA and its Histogram ticks above the zero #D2.

Bears take support the Mid-line of the Medium Term Chart with a green week, after returning from the Top a couple of months ago #W1..
Bulls fight back to produce another 'High Wave' candle, and close above the Wall and the 50 SMA #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

  • A proper Pull-Back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) towards the old Day Channel's green bottom,  is again on the wish list, of the Bulls #D1. 
  • A Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart.
  • The twin 'High Wave' candle's effect on this week's action is worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls face resistance at the Day Chart's 200 SMA #D1 and the 13 SMA (8468) on the Medium Term Chart #W1. 
  • Support is available, at the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' and the weekly 50 SMA (8232) #W1 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
  • Bulls hope that the TRD would take support at the 50% mark, this month #M2.

Wrap :
Bulls look to stay above 'The Wall' and break into the green bottom of the Day Channel #D1 .
Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - want to keep the momentum going to again break, and stay below, the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) #W1.