S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Resistance, Megaphone - Week 5 of October 2014.

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 24 Oct'14

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 24 Oct'14

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 24 Oct'14

 

Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• Last week's Hammer, blows the Index up to the weekly 13 SMA #W1.
• Index rises from the Day Channel Bottom to near its top - Possible Broadening Top (see Megaphone pattern) in progress on the Day Charts #D1.

Support & Resistance:

• Bulls defend the Month channel bottom on the EOM #M1, and close above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
• Bears hold down the Index at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.

Moving Averages:  

• 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay crossed Bearishly on the EOW #W1.

Indicators:

• RSI 13 meanders in the 50s #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls take off from the Long Term Channel bottom #M1 with a Hammer. 
Bears hold down the index at the weekly 13 SMA #W1 and present a Megaphone #D1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Hammer (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) active in the Medium Term screen #W1.
• Broadening Top (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) forming on the Day Chart needs to be watched #D1.

Support & Resistance: 

• EOD channel Top #D1, and the All Time High (ATH) are resistances.
• The EOM channel bottom #M1, and the Monthly 5 EMA #M1, are Supports.

Moving Averages:

• The Index is currently at the 13 SMA on the EOW i.e 1966 #W1.

Indicators:

• TSI slips below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls look to hammer their way to the All Time High (ATH), with some help from the Broadening Top #D1.
Bears look to hold below the Day Channel #D1 and the Weekly 13 SMA #W1. 

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Touch & Go - Week 5 of October 2014.

Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 24 Oct'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls kick off from the Kumo to get above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2.
Bulls also get the Chikou Span bounce #W1.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen still in Touch #W2.
Senoku Span A & B gap is narrow and steady #W3.



Wrap: Bulls after a close above Kumo last week get back in the green #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Bears aim for a close inside the Kumo #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
Chikou Span staying above the Price line, is the current Bull ask #W1.
Bearish cross of the Senoku Span A-B is the Bull ask #W3.


Wrap: Bears seek to close inside the Kumo #W2 - Bulls hope the Chikou Span would stay above the Price line #W1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears Resist - Week 5 of October 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 24 Oct'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 24 Oct'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 24 Oct'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• Evening Doji Star happens if index closes below 7964 this month - Bulls finally clear this mark #M1.
• Index Pullback to previous Day Channel bottom is on #D1.

Support & Resistance:

• Index soars after clearing 7912, the October Wall, but halts at the Month Pivot #M1.

Moving Averages: 

• The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW deflect, after the Bulls fight back to close well above  our mark of 7900  #W1.

Indicators:

• MACD points up while still below the zero line #D2.

Wrap:

Index clears the October Wall (7912) and Bulls dominate all screens, Bears fight to retain hope of an Evening Doji Star happening, by holding the Bulls at the Month Pivot #M1 

Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:

• Possibility of a Long Term Evening Doji Star (Study Links here, here or elsewhere), if month's close is below 7964 #M1.
• Price Pullback (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) to Old Day Channel bottom to be watched for follow-up action #D1,

Support & Resistance:

• Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the 5 EMA on the Month Chart #M1 and 7912.
• Bears look to keep the Index below the Month Pivot or better still, aim for sub 7964 #W1. 

Moving Averages: 

• Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
• The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW stay Bullishly deflected above 7912 (this is also the October Wall) OR cross Bearishly below this number #W1.

Indicators:

• STS staying in the overbought, works for the Bulls #W2.

Wrap :

Staying above the Month Pivot #M1, and making a new ATH are Priority for the Bulls.
Bears seek to ensure an Evening Doji Star #M1 by closing this week below 7964.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Fold - Week 5 of October 2014.

BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 24 Oct'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls get index above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also steady #W2


Wrap: Index uses the resistance of the last high and moves above the Tenkan Sen #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few weeks #W1.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen crossing or deflecting is also a few weeks away by current trends #W2


Wrap: Bears seek to get the index below the Tenkan Sen and get to the Kijun Sen, Bulls focus on getting back to the previous ATHs  #W2.

Say ...

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Support Hammer - Week 4 of October 2014.

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 17 Oct'14

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 17 Oct'14

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 17 Oct'14

Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• Weekly Candle is a Hammer #W1.
• Index falls below the Weekly Channel Bottom and closes both above the Monthly Channel Bottom #M1 and our mark of 1883.

Support & Resistance:

• Bulls defend the Month channel bottom on the EOM #M1, and stay above the 13 SMA on the Month Chart #M1.
• Bears have it good as they crack the 200 SMA, on the EOD and the EOW channel Bottom #W1.

Moving Averages:  

• 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly on the EOW #W1.

Indicators:

• RSI 13 down to the 40s #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls take support near the Long Term Channel bottom #M1 and hold out a Hammer. 
Bears get below the 200 SMA, and control the Short and Medium Term Screens #W1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Hammer (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) active in the Medium Term screen #W1.
• Long Term Channel #M1, is support for the Bulls this week and Medium Term Channel Bottom is resistance #W1.

Support & Resistance: 

• EOW channel Bottom #W1, and the MVWAP 34 (EOW), are resistances.
• The EOM channel bottom #M1, and the Monthly 13 SMA (1883) #M1, are the Supports.

Moving Averages:

• The Index is above the 13 SMA on the EOM i.e 1883 #M1.
• 5 EMA for Monday (next trading day), is also 1883 #D1.

Indicators:

• TSI looks for support, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls look to hammer a defense at 1883, defending the Monthly Channel Bottom #M1. 
Bears look to hold below the Weekly Channel Bottom and the MVWAP 34 #W1. 

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Touch - Week 4 of October 2014.

Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 17 Oct'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bears force break-down from Peak 2 - Bulls manage to hold above the Kumo #W2.
Chikou Span and Price Line Touch #W1.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen Touch #W2.
Gap between  Senoku Span A-B narrows for a Touch #W3.



Wrap: Index fall continues, into the Kumo - Bulls manage to close above Kumo #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Bears aim for a close inside the Kumo #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
Chikou Span bouncing off the Price line, is the current Bull hope #W1.
Bearish cross of the Senoku Span A-B is the Bull ask #W3.


Wrap: Bears seek to close inside the Kumo #W2 - Bulls hope the Chikou Span would bounce off the Price line #W1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls Fight - Week 4 of October 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 17 Oct'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 17 Oct'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 17 Oct'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• Evening Doji Star happens if index stays below 7964 this month - Bulls fail to sustain above this number most of October #M1.
• 'Inside Bar' on the weekly chart is followed by 2 High Wave candles #W1.

Support & Resistance:

• Index below the 5 EMA on the EOW after failing to stay above 7912, the October Wall #W1.
• Bulls keep it well above the 5 EMA on the EOM (7645) and the S2 on the Pivot #M1,

Moving Averages: 

• The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW touch, after the Bulls fight back to close above  our mark of 7760  #W1.

Indicators:

• MACD stays below the zero line #D2.

Wrap:

Index again fails at the October Wall (7912) after Bears light the hope of an Evening Doji Star happening #M1. Bulls keep it above the S2 of the Month Pivot #M1.

Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:

• Possibility of a Long Term Evening Doji Star (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) happening is brighter and now depends on this month's close (below 7964) #M1.
• Inside Day' Pattern on the Weekly Chart (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) is active as are the next 2 'High Wave' candle's effect (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) #W1.
• New Day Channel - less steep - is drawn subsequent to the Price action #D1,

Support & Resistance:

• Index supports that the Bulls want to hold, are the S2 on the Monthly Pivot and 7645 #M1.
• Bears look to keep the Index below the Wall (7912) or even better 7900 #W1. 

Moving Averages: 

• Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
• The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW will now cross Bearishly below 7900 OR deflect Bullishly above this number #W1.

Indicators:

• STS staying in the overbought, works for the Bulls #W2.

Wrap :

Staying above the S2 of the Month Pivot #M1, and closing above 7900 are high on the Bull agenda for the Week.
Bears have the rest of October to ensure an Evening Doji Star #M1, immediate task is to keep the Index below the October Wall (7912).

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Hold - Week 4 of October 2014.

BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 17 Oct'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls again fail to get index above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap higher #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also higher #W2


Wrap: Index edges below the previous major High, and keeps below the Tenkan Sen #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few weeks #W1.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen crossing or deflecting is also a few weeks away by current trends #W2


Wrap: Bears seek to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen and get to the Kijun Sen, Bulls focus on getting back to the previous Highs  #W2.