Monday, August 11, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bear wave below the wall - Week 2 of August 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 08 Aug'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 08 Aug'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 08 Aug'14





Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bears keep index below the August Wall. and the July Candle's High Wave effect, adds to Bear joy #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls defend the Day Channel Bottom #D1 and get support at the 13 SMA on the EOW as studied #W1
  • Bears take it just below the Daily 50 SMA #D1, after neatly defending the August Pivot 7667 #M1
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bearishly early in the week to give Bears dominance of the Index #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD histogram ticks below zero - without any divergence yet #D2. 
  • STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

Wrap:
Bears retain control of the short term screen after index keeps well below the August Wall 7721 (Study), Bulls take off from Day Channel Bottom to close above the Weekly 13 SMA #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • July candle's High Wave effect (Study links herehere or elsewhere) is on #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears face the 13 SMA on the EOW (7548) as the next Index support to break #W1.
  • Index  faces resistance at the Month Pivot 7667 #M1 and August Wall (7721). 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's have initiated converging #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW cross bearishly, if index closes below 7393 this week #W1.
Indicators:
  • MACD Histogram diverging positively to Price will work for the Bulls #D2.
  • STS slipping below the overbought, augers well for the Bears #W1.


Wrap:
Bulls look to defend the Day Channel Bottom #D1 and get above the August Pivot 7667 #M1.
Bears look to keep below the August Wall 7721 and break the EOD channel bottom #D1.