Monday, March 3, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - The Nifty Piercing - Week 1 of March 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Feb'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Feb'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 28 Feb'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • January and February Candles form a  'Piercing Pattern' #M1.
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) - see the last three candles on EOM  chart #M1 - fails to materialize, as February closes above January's close. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Index  closes above 6238 the March Wall (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere)
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA poised to Bullishly cross above the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • STS pulls back (study) from below, to the Support line shown #W2. 



Wrap:
Bulls keep momentum with a retake of all 3 Time Frames - Bears hold STS pullback below the Support line #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Piercing Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is active.   
  • The three peaks made by the Index marked A, B and C on the EOM - can be a Triple Top (Study link herehere or elsewhere) - The two Bottoms D & E look like a 'Ugly Double Bottom' (Study link here or elsewhere) - these two are worth watching.
Support & Resistance:
  • The long time nemesis of the Bulls, the Nov'13 High (6343) #W1, is the next resistance. 
  • 5975, the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Dec'2011 Low to ATH#W1 is the support.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
  • A Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Week Charts stays in place this week, at a Index reading of 6229 #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS keeping below its support line, works for the Bears #W1, while the MACD staying above the zero line, helps the Bulls #D2.



Wrap:
Bears want life below the March Wall, 6238. Bulls hope to cross and stay above 6343.