Monday, January 13, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears sniff Honey - Week 3 of January 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 10 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 10 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 10 Jan'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

  • November and December candles will set up a Long Term 'Three Outside up' if January closes above December Close #M1.
  • The last three candles on the EOW #W1 form a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears crack the 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the EOW #W1.
  • Bears crash through the 34 EMA, 50 SMA & Channel mid line Support on the EOD, while Bulls were resisted last week by the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA start converging for a Death Cross even as they currently stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • The medium term 5 EMA threatens to move below the 13 SMA #W1.  
  • STS stays above resistance line #W2, a strong support for Bulls. 
  • MACD follows its Histogram into the Sub-Zero zone #D2.

Bulls lose short term screen - Bears close below the Weekly 13 SMA finally #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

  • Bullish 'Three Outside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible - to be watched for.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA EOD, is now this weeks resistance #D1.
  • 34 EMA (6009) on the Week Chart #W1 is the Support that the Bulls have to hold, to retain control of the Medium Term.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can even now give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • EOW 5 EMA bearishly Crossing below the 13 SMA at 6125 this week would give the Bears their Honey #W1.
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
  • Bulls need to get above the Wall for the current series i.e. 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere) to get back into the game.

Bulls seek to clear the Wall and target the ATH - Bears hope to keep below the Wall and break 6125.