Monday, January 6, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Wall Fall - Week 2 of January 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 03 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 03 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 03 Jan'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

  • November and December candles will set up a Long Term 'Three Outside up' if January closes above December Close #M1.
  • The last two candles on the EOW #W1 form a Bearish Engulfing Pattern - This week closing below 6211 produces a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls stay clear of the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 despite the bear onslaught.
  • Bulls also use the 34 EMA, 50 SMA & Channel mid line on the EOD as support and were resisted near the previous ATH 6343 (Current ATH being 6415) #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • The short term 5 EMA poised to move below the 13 SMA #D1.  
  • STS stays above resistance line #W2, a strong support for Bulls. 
  • Bears crack this Month's Wall (6280) is style, with a 100+ point fall to start 2014 with a red week.   

Bulls retain short term screen by a thread, despite Wall fall - Bears fail at the Weekly 13 SMA yet again #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

  • Bullish 'Three Outside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible - to be watched for.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is on, if this week closes below 6211. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA, 50 SMA and Channel Mid line remain weekly supports #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can continue to give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • Keeping above the 5 EMA on the Month Chart, bulls display long term strength.
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
  • Bulls need to get above the Wall for the current series i.e. 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere) to get back into the game.

Bulls seek to clear the Wall and target the ATH - Bears hope to keep below the Wall and ensure a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down'.