Saturday, October 13, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 08 October to 12 October, 2012 - Channel top resists Bulls

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 12 October, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward. 

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 12 October, 2012
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 12 October, 2012
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Divergence at the MACD (f) helped the Bears, the Signal line crossed the MACD early in the week exactly as anticipated and Bears got a red week.
A bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (e) confirms that the Bears have arrived on the EOD.
Bulls keep it above the 5 EMA on the Medium and Long Term Screens (a,c).
The short fuse indicator (b) turns down, indicating the effect of this month's candle, to-date.
STS in oversold (d) indicates Bull power.
Month candle turns red (a).
Bearish Engulfing Candle Pattern forms on the EOW (c).

Looking Forward into the next Week:
Bulls, after failing to clear the EOD Channel top look at the Blue center line (e) as support.
A massive Pullback to the Monthly Channel's Green bottom line (a) - is the still the Bull agenda.
Gap between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA on the EOD, now starts contracting.
Staying above the red support-resistance line on the STS (d) is important for the Bulls.
Getting the Index below the 5 EMA on the Week Chart (c) is critical for the Bears.
Bears look forward to the Bearish Engulfing (c) developing into a Bearish Three Outside Down.. So watch if the next week's candle looks like closing below last weeks, for this Highly reliable Bearish Pattern to kick in.