Saturday, September 1, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 27 Aug to 31 August, 2012 - Fibonacci Held

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 31 Aug, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward. 

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 31 Aug, 2012.
 Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from 2010 onward.  

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 31 Aug, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Bulls continued to fail at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (C) of the Nifty's all time high and last major low (2008). 
Bears got the recharge we studied, after falling below the MVWAP 34 (monthly), which we pegged at 5315.
5315 is our Wall for September.
Bulls slip back into the EOW channel (C), the STS resistance (D) holds.
Negative Divergence on the MACD (F), did the job for the bears.
The last two month candles failed to form a 'Bullish Engulfing Pattern', as viewed last until last week (A).
Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (E) happened - support was near the 13 SMA (C).

Looking Forward into the next Week:
The support at STS (D) helps the Bulls.
Staying above last week's close  - Bulls can look at a bounce back, early next week.
Index moving back above the EOW channel top (C), keeps the Long term Bear on hold.
The 34 EMA (C) on the Week Chart is the next stop for Bears.
The 13 SMA on the EOW (C) is the point of contention to watch, failure here, sours the week's action for the Bulls.