Saturday, May 19, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 14 May to 18 May, 2012 - Midlife Crisis Point

Learnings from the Past Week:
Our short term view of the market turned Bearish last Monday (click).
The Bears then took it down to 1300 and lower by weekend.
After Thursday's Market action, we suggested that one support point would be the Weekly MVWAP 34 (click).
Bulls found support, exactly at this point, on Friday.
Would mid life (mid channel) crisis, affect the Bears at this stage - or are we in for more red?

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 18 May, 2012. 

With Price above the MVWAP 34 - this screen is owned by Bulls.
With a weekly close below all our short term MAs - its a nervous owner indeed.
The 13 SMA and the Channel mid line - are support areas for the Bulls.
The astounding effect of the Three inside down (click) has been a gain of 100 points and counting for the alert Bear.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 18 May, 2012.

The Weekly channels (white lines) have had a reduction in their angle of inclination, due to recent Price action.
Support for Bulls is exactly at the MVWAP 34 as suggested.
The Stochastic indicator has gone into oversold territory.
We saw this screen, scream 'Bear' in last last week's EOW (click) - we expect a pause for breath at the MVWAP 34 (arrow).

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 18 May, 2012.  

Our Day Channel (yellow lines) just got steeper - after the channel break.
The Positive divergence, seen last week, is still apparent (yellow arrow).
An all red week is rare - but with Price below all MAs and a channel break as pointed out last Monday - this too has happened.

Looking forward into next week:
Bears are on top. 
They have almost all Indicators on their side.
Support at the Weekly MVWAP34 should lead to some consolidation.
Positive Divergences are a precursor to some ranging moves or trend reversal.
Bulls have the above two, and hope on their side.