Saturday, May 5, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 30 April to 04 May, 2012 - 'Three Inside Down' effect.

Learnings from the Past Week:
Our Analysis last weekend (click) ended with the note "The Candle pattern, that this month is forming, is a vote for the Bears. Shall be studied on month close."
We studied this pattern at month close (click) and concluded that below 1398, the Bears get a shot at the, Bearish "Three Inside Down" candle Pattern, on the Monthly Screen.
Finally on Thursday, we saw the Index slip below the 1398 (click).
Currently the SP500 has closed the week at 1369, after a 2.5% odd Fall from the top..
Our study was just in time to catch the big move, where to next ?

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOM Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 04 May, 2012. 
Support, after last week's fall, was on the 5 EMA.
Our Three Inside Down is active so long as the month is below 1398.
On the Stochastic, the %K has moved below the %D.
Bulls are still on top, at the Long Term Screen.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:   
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 04 May, 2012.
We saw the Bullish 'Three Inside up' and a potential Deflection (10 EMA) on this Screen last weekend.
The Bearish Signals from the 'higher' Time Frame, Monthly Screen - dominated the above signals.
The 10 EMA has therefore crossed bearishly below the 13 SMA.
Support is on the White - Weekly Channel bottom.
The Medium Term View is Neutral.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart where each candle is 1 day's price action (or) EOD Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 04 May, 2012.  
Price has dived below the MVWAP 34, and is below all short MAs that we watch.
Bearish crosses of above MAs in progress.
Support on Week Channel's bottom line,  with Histogram ticking into minus.
This Screen is in Bear hands.

Looking Forward into the Next Week:
Bulls get strength above the MVWAP 34 and  Bears momentum, below the White Channel line.
The Yellow 'Day' channel should hold the Action.
Intra-week Updates, shall be up.