Sunday, May 13, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 07 May to 11 May, 2012 - Bear that Dawn..

Learnings from the Past Week:
We came into the past week with the Bears in command of the Nifty.
The Nifty continued to trend downwards, we discussed the start of the current move here (click).
Following the Bearish 'Three Inside Down' on the EOM (click) - May has made a huge red candle.
As we learned in the previous Ichimoku Cloud Analysis - the times are dark for the Longs.
Where does one go from here - what follows these dark hours for the Bull?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 11 May, 2012. 
We noted at the beginning of this month's candle, that 5199 was the mark to stay above - for a Bull (click).
Sliding below that caused the Nifty to reach 4929 in quick time, with the some help from the Bearish candle pattern, seen above.
Currently the big Bullish cue, that the Nifty presents for the Long term, is on the EOD charts - the Bullish Golden Cross and the 34 EMA over the 200 DMA - which are still alive.
Lets see what the EOW has to offer..

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 11 May, 2012.
We were watching this screen all of last week (click).
The bears seemed to have made off with the cake - however a different perspective was shown for the record (click).
The Stochastic Indicator also seems to be telling us, that a consolidation is possible here.
As things stand - Bears have the power and all the Short MAs that we watch, are crossed Bearishly.
On to the the EOD then..

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:  
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 11 May, 2012.
We have moved to a candle chart for this study - just for a change.
Closing below the 5 EMA, all of last week - Bears had an easy job of sliding down the index.
Our old friend, the MACD remains in the minus - we watched that one from the start.
Channel mid point (blue line) and Fibonacci 61x, are the next scheduled stops.

Looking Forward into the next week:
Momentum across all screens - is with the Bears - as of this time.
Even the Long Term Bullish Crosses we studied, can Un-Cross themselves in a week, at this rate of fall.
Which is exactly why the contra thinking, confirmed Bulls among us would enjoy the next few days.
If this is the darkest hour - can the dawn be far?
Intra-week updates shall be up, to capture the action, next.