Trade, Live and Thrive

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 06 2012 - Consolidation Bores ..

Nifty - End of Day - 06 June 2012

Bears were favorites for the first half of Monday.

They took the Index to our EOW and EOD supports discussed last weekend (click)

The Bulls used that support to move up, all the way to our upper range limit - the 34 EMA - second circle.

The 50 SMA is 25 points away from the 200 SMA for a Death Cross or a Golden Deflection - first circle.

Histogram continues to tick up - third circle.

The rather boring Consolidation continues - a breakout seems near - if the 34 EMA is taken out with force.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 28 May to 01 June, 2012 - More Consolidation

Learning from the Past Week:

Above the 5 EMA (EOD), we said the Bulls as favorites, could move the Index to the 200 DMA - they did move it up, and stopped about 50 points shy of that mark.

Below the 5 EMA, the bears tried taking the Index below our lower mark, the Fibonacci 61.8 (EOD) - they also fell short by about 50 points..

That left us with the third option - more consolidation - and that was last week's flavor.

How about next week?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 01 June, 2012.

The Index closed last month with a red candle as befitting the 'Three Inside Down' we studied (click).

Its below all the short term MAs that we track.

Bears hold the roost - momentum however is missing.

Notice the highlight on the CCI Indicator.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 01 June, 2012.

The last two candles show us a Bearish Engulfing.

We studied this in the previous post - along with its possible successor the Three outside Down.

Support on the 200 SMA and DMA continues as does the middle channel.

The STS Indicator shows us that its on a strong support.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 01 June, 2012.

The first pink circle shows us the continued consolidation of the Index, after its last bottom.

The MACD Histogram is in plus territory,

The gap between the 200 SMA and 50 SMA is now 40 odd points vis-à-vis 80 odd points last Friday.

5 SMA / 13 SMA cross has happened again - Bearish now.

Looking Forward into the next week:

On the EOW - the Bearish candle patterns studied and also the strong support for the Bulls are notable.

The Fib61x on the EOD, remains between the Bears and their honey as does the position of the 50 and 200 SMA.

The 34 EMA (EOD) on the upside and the 200 EMA (EOW) on the downside keeps the Nifty locked in for now.

Bears are the current favorites.

Updates at weekend.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 28 May to 01 June 01 2012 - Middle Caves in..

Learning from the Past Week:

Our view last week (click) was that the Bulls had to keep the index above 1300 for May 2012 - They did.

We said that the Bears would attempt breaking the MVWAP 34 (EOW) - this also happened.

The middle line of our EOM chart - in blue color - caved in, to the bears.

The full effect of the Three Inside Down that we studied a month ago (click) - is seen with the red on the EOM chart.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 01 June, 2012.

The STS indicator's stubborn stay in the oversold zone - keeps the Bulls on top in this chart.

MVWAP 34 is the next target for the Bears.

The last 3+1 candles show the 'Three Inside Down' and its result.

Keeping the Index below our Blue Middle line - the Bears have their toe into this screen.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 01 June, 2012.

The White Weekly channel lines shows, the complete touchdown of the Price line.

After almost perfectly touching the bottom channel line - one looks for a channel break here.

With Index below the MVWAP 34 - the Bears are the new owners of this screen.

The Bearish Engufing seen on the last 2 candles - adds power to the Bearish Three Inside Down on the EOM.

Some reads to refresh our memories on this pattern..and its successor the Three Outside Down

Bearish Engulfing

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearishengulfingp.asp#axzz1wirnaGYq

http://www.thepatternsite.com/BearEngulfing.html

Three Outside Down

http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bear/three_outside_down_bearish.cfm

http://www.candlestickanalysis.com/three-outside-down-candlestick-pattern

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 01 June, 2012.

The highlighted zone, shows the confluence of resistance for the Bears.

A bounce here, would give the Bulls a choice of consolidation, or a bounce towards the Blue middle of the EOM.

Otherwise this screen, continues to be officially Bear, as observed last week.

Looking Forward into next week:

On the EOW one watches for the Bearish Engulfing, mutating into a Three Outside Down.

The EOD resistance shown should give early indication, as to how the week would pan out,

The (s)pain for the Bulls may be greeased over, by above Channel Bottoms.

Saturday, June 2, 2012

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 28 May to 01 June, 2012 - Kijun Folds..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as on chart below:

1. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (C)

2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (T)

3. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

4. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

5. Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

6. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 25 May 2012

Index Fell below the Blue Kijun Sen last week - after an aborted attempt at the red Tenkan Sen.

The 'B' shown by the arrow is the Chikou Span - its at the price line - Bearish Cross soon?

The 'C' shows last week's Kijun Sen cross - Bearish and resistance offered by the MVWAP 34.

Oscillator is ticking down.

Conclusion:

Gravitational Pull of the Flat Kumo has pulled the Index down so far - Flat Kumo ends soon.

Bulls need to move the index up fast - else we see a Bearish Cross of the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen soon.

Watch out for that cross (red line and blue line), during the next week.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 28 May to 01 June 2012 - Sensex sees Red

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as on chart below:

1. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)

2. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

3. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)

4. The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)

5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

6. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (A)
7. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (A)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 01 06 June, 2012.

We expected the Index to breach the red Tenkan Sen last week.

A valiant effort which fell short - is seen in the tall red candle of last week.

We have at 'A' the Chikou Span recrossing the Price line bearishly - negating the gains of last week.

The way the Chikou Span is oriented, looks like it can recross the Price line bullishly again, shortly.

The Oscillator is ticking down.

Conclusion:

Bears have taken back the gains Bulls made last week.

Its still consolidation mode - but with a Bearish 'Red' tinge.

Watch that Chikou Span next week.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.