Trade, Live and Thrive

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Say ...

Monday, February 3, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Red 2014, Bulls hold a line - Week 1 of February 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 31 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 31 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Dec'2013, onward - as on 31 Jan'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Week Chart's Bearish 'Three Inside Down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) gives the Bears some more honey #W1.
Last 4 candles on the Month Screen show a near 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' going Bear as the January 2014 candle closes red #M1,

Support & Resistance:

Bulls close just above the 5 EMA on the Monthly chart #M1.

Moving Averages:

On the Week Chart, the 5 EMA makes a Bearish Cross with the 13 SMA #W1.

Indicators:

RSI 13, meanders in the 50s #W2.
Month Chart Oscillator below the overbought, as it has been after the August'13 Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls see red month and year but consolidate last week - Bears take the Short Term and nearly take the Medium Term too..

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

The near 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' going Bear (Study link here, here or elsewhere) needs consideration #M1.
Week Chart's Bearish 'Three Inside Down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) is active #W1.

Support & Resistance:

MVWAP 34 on the Short Term Chart is resistance for the Bulls, while the Month Chart's 5 EMA (1771) is the next Support.

Moving Averages:

Bears need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOW below the 13 SMA (i.e index below 1826) to stay in the game #W1

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4, deliberating near the over sold, works for the Bulls #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls desperately want to hold above 1771 - Bears want to keep the Week Chart's 5 EMA below the 13 SMA.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Support - Week 1 of February 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 31 Jan'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls go red again, after slipping below the Tenkan Sen last week #W2.
Senoku Span A & B converge some more #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen reduces #W2.
Chikou Span kisses the Price line #W1.

Wrap: Bulls get support at the Kijun Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Convergence of Senoku Span A & B, remains a concern for Bulls #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also converge, divergence would give the Bulls some relief #W2.
Bulls staying above Kijun Sen gives hope of a retake of the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Chikou Span deflection or cross of the Price line to be watched #W1.

Wrap: Bulls look to keep above the Kijun Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen is strong resistance for the Index #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls find another Wall - Week 1 of February 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 31 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 31 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 31 Jan'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

December & January candles form 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.
The EOW #W1 shows a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern and its effect.

Support & Resistance:

Bears staying below the January Wall 6280, for most of the month - used our mark the Weekly 13 SMA (6191) as precise resistance to make a 160 point fall. Support was near the 76.4 % Fibo retrace marked on the EOW screen #W1.

Moving Averages:

The medium term 5 EMA close to Bullish deflection or Bearish Cross of the 13 SMA #W1.

Indicators:

STS stays above resistance line marked, a strong support for Bulls #W2.

Wrap:

Bears take the short term screen - Bulls close the week above the new Wall (6076).

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible, if February closes below January.
Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active.

Support & Resistance:

13 SMA Weekly (6187), is now resistance for the Index #W1, while the Wall for the current series 6076 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate, study link here, here or elsewhere) is the current support.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can even now give the Bulls verve, to attempt new ATHs.

Indicators:

STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to stay above the Wall and target the 13 SMA #W1 - Bears next need to get below the '76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' (5975) #W1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Fall - Week 1 of February 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 31 Jan'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls slip below the Tenkan Sen and stay below it all week #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - steady #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen flat #W2
Chikou Span see price line beyond a deep chasm #W1.

Wrap: Bulls slip below the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span needs to cover a lot of ground to meet the Price Line in the next few weeks #W1.
Bears need to stay below the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Flattening of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B indicative of consolidation before a Big move #W2 #W3.

Wrap: Bears eye the Kumo #W2. Bulls trust the Chikou Span stays above the Price line #W1.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.