Trade, Live and Thrive

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Say ...

Monday, October 28, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Another week another 'ATH' :- Week: 21 October to 25 October, 2013.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 25 Oct'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 25 Oct'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 25 Oct'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

As studied earlier - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami (Study Link here, here or elsewhere) #M1. October close above September makes it a 'Three Inside up'.

Support & Resistance:

The short Term Channel Top resistance was cleared by the Bulls last week, new channel shown #D1. Month Channel Top (blue) is current resistance #D1
5 EMA on the EOD was the support #D1.

Moving Averages:

Aggressive Bulls keep above all the EMAs/SMAs we track, all last week #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 remains below the overbought #W2.
Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls keep the 'Three Inside Up' in progress on the Long Term and make another new 'ATH'

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

October closing above September's close makes a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) - with a week to go for the month close, Bulls can smell the grass.

Support & Resistance:

34 EMA and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.

Moving Averages:

Running above the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 - shows momentum of the Bulls.

Indicators:

RSI staying below the oversold, with its divergence to Price (arrow) #W2, plus for Bears.
Stochastic 34 3 4 staying in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #D1

Wrap:

Bulls expect that the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, forms in October - Bears see 'hope' in the Month Channel Top resistance (blue) #D1 .

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bull Continuation :- Week: 14 October to 18 October, 2013.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 25 Oct'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get higher above the Kijun Sen & Tenkan Sen #2.
Chikou Span still around the Price line #1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows further #2.

Bulls keep the advantage..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, and retain the advantage #2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line important - to be watched for cross or deflection #1.
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) is a concern for Bears #3.
Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen should worry the Bulls #2.

Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 'Golden Cross' watch 1 :- Week: 21 October to 25 October, 2013.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 25 Oct'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 25 Oct'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 25 Oct'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

As studied last couple of weeks - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami (Study Link here, here or elsewhere) #M1. October close above September makes it a 'Three Inside up'.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls keep above the Channel middle on the EOD #D1 - which was support last week.
All time High (ATH) beckons the Bulls #D1 and the ATH is the next resistance.

Moving Averages:

EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross ##D1.
EOM - 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly above 6003 #M1 - Bearish overhang lifts.

Indicators:

STS reaches the over bought after clearing resistance the previous week #W2.

Wrap:
Bears manage a red week even as the Bulls attempt to reach the All time High ..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

October closing above September's close makes a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) - with a week to go for the month close, Bulls can smell the grass.

Support & Resistance:

The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the support for the Index #D1.
Last 'All time high' is the resistance #D1.

Moving Averages:

200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed in a Death Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) #D1, keeps the Bulls under pressure.
50 SMA gets close to the 200 SMA #D1 - Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) is on in the coming week, at current rate of climb.

Indicators:

MACD and its MA look like they could cross Bearishly anytime #D2.

Wrap:

Bears place their hopes on the Death Cross staying on #D1 - Bulls eye the 'All time High' and a Golden Cross #D1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - The Bear Line Up - 6th and holding on :- Week: 21 October to 25 October, 2013.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 25 Oct'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

The Senkou Span A&B #4 move higher but together, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also do the same #3, and now they all read 19244.07 - 6th week they all read the same #5.
Bears pull one back and get a red week #2.

Despite Bulls making a new High #2 albeit in a red week, Bears hold on to their last line of defense #5..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The Senkou Span B crossing above the Senkou Span A #4 or the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen #3 would give the Bulls control of the Medium Term Screen.
Bears manage to hold this line up #5 for the 6th straight week.
Chikou Span moves nearer to Price Line - deflection or cross some time away #1.

Tenacious Bears desperately hold their line #5 - Bulls seek to dominate the Medium Term #3 & #4.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.