Sunday, March 3, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 February to 01 March, 2013 - Bulls Sweat over Channel Top Stop



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 01 March'13




S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 01 March'13




S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 01 March'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Day Channel bottom Support, #D1, helps the Bulls, a green Doji week seen.
#M1, #W1, #D1 - show us that the Month Channel's red top line, is a strong resistance to the price line.
5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD charts #D1, which was seen crossing bearishly last week, look  poised for a cross or deflection again.
RSI #W2, and its MA cross bearishly while the action at the STS #M2 shows the Bull's Long Term Strength.
Bulls retake the short term screen #D1 & #D2. 
MVWAP 34, supports price again #D1.


Bulls keep above critical MAs on all three screen - Bears hold the Long Term Channel Top - Doji Week once again..




The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Month channel's, top red line #M1, continues to be a crucial resistance for Bulls.
The MVWAP 34 on the EOD and the Day channel bottom #D1, remains the support.
Holding the price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the next task for the Bears.
Bullish cross of the 13 SMA with 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1 critical for the Bulls - Bearish Deflection at this stage, would be a boon for the Bears.
The Long Term Channel Top #M1 is our resistance and the Short Term Channel Bottom #D1 is our Support.



The Bullish cross / deflection of critical MAs (5 EMA & 13 SMA) on the Short Term Screen #D1 needs a watch as does the action near the Resistance #M1 & Support #D1 that we studied above.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 February to 01 March, 2013 - Mid Life Crisis..


Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 01 March'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 01 March'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 01 March'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Channel Top Stop on the EOW #3, remains the nemesis of Bulls for yet another week.
2 crows pattern which we studied, gives the Bears #3 - more gains.
5 EMA on the EOM #1, fails to support the Bulls, its a critical resistance now. 
Day channel #5 (new) sees the Price taking support at the the channel bottom.
50 SMA and 200 SMA converge - on the EOD charts #5.
MACD Histogram shows positive divergence to price #6.
The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high breaks, while the 61.8% holds the Price #1. 
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows that the Bulls are around for a comeback #4.


Sent back at the Channel Top #3 on the Medium Term Screen, Price is at the Channel's Middle Line. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel Middle (blue) and 34 EMA on the EOW, is the new support for Bulls #3.
Bouncing from the green bottom line of the new EOD channel #5 - Bulls could attempt a retake of the short term screen.
2 crows pattern that we studied last few weeks, to be followed up for its targets.
50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Getting above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - is important for Bulls to get a shot at new Highs.
Support line on the STS #4, worth a watch.

The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, is resistance and the 61.8% the support to watch.




Saturday, March 2, 2013

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 25 February to 01 March, 2013 - Bulls mull Up move


                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K) 

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 01 March'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Bulls close up higher, after three weeks spent in a 'row' #2..
The Chikou Span #1, retains distance to the price line.
The Oscillator #3 ticks down marginally - divergence with Price continues.


Bears & Bull are deadlocked still - Advantage now with the Bulls.




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.
Bearish Divergence apparent on the Oscillator #3.
Bulls would look at keeping the advantage - keeping clear of the Ichimoku Indicators.


With Price nearing the Red Line,  Bears retain some hope of recrossing the Tenkan Sen line - in the near future.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 25 February to 01 March, 2013 - Bulls seek support @ Kijun Sen



                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.




Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)  
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

Last:
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish Signal (Te)  



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 01 March'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bears keep the Index below the Tenkan Sen #2 - again.
Oscillator ticks down and Divergence to Price continues #3.
Chikou Span dives towards the Price line #1.
Bulls halt slide at the Kijun Sen - MVWAP 34 junction #2.



Bulls hold the slide near the confluence of the Kijun Sen and MVWAP 34 last week. Bears retain hold of the Screen.




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Staying above the blue Kijun Sen - Bulls still have an edge #2.
Bears see strength, staying below the Tenkan Sen #2.
Chikou Span could be the catalyst with a cross or deflection #1.


A Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen is the next Bear Agenda.




Sunday, February 24, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 18 February to 22 February, 2013 - Bears defend Channel Top Again..




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 15 Feb'13




S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 15 Feb'13




S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 15 Feb'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Month Channel top resistance, seen at #D1, #W1 & #M1 once again sends back the Bulls, a red week seen.
#D2 and #W2 show Divergence.
#M1, #W1, #D1 - show us that the Month Channel's red top line, clearly stop the price line.
5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD charts #D1, which was seen converging last week, cross bearishly.
RSI #W2, and its MA cross bearishly while still in the oversold.
Bears wrest the short term screen from the Bulls #D1 & #D2.
#D1 shows the price line taking support on the MVWAP 34 - exactly as anticipated last week.


Watch of the Month/Day Channel's top red line #M1, #D1 and the Divergences #D2 & #W2, paid off .. support on the 34 MVWAP #D1 also worth a watch.




The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Month channel's, top red line #M1, continues to be resistance for Bulls.
The MVWAP 34 on the EOD, #D1, remains the support.
Bullish cross of the 13 SMA with 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1 critical for the Bull.
Sliding the price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the next task for the Bear.



Month Channel Top continues as the critical resistance - #M1..