EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 12 06 2012 - Death Cross or Golden Deflection ?

Nifty - End of Day - 06 June 2012

In our last weekend study we concluded that the EOW Candle pattern and EOD Channel break would define action this week (click - see ."Looking forward..")

We also noted that for the Death Cross (50 SMA going below 200 SMA) to be avoided, the Nifty would need to maintain a high rate of climb.

The EOD channel is breached and we have the new RBG (Red Blue Green) channel to track - as above.

The MACD is close to cracking the '0' line as seen in the bottom circle.

Closing EOD today (at 5116) being above the EOW close of last week (5068) - The Bullish 'Three Outside Up' is on.

We see that the volume is flat for this up move in the middle circle.

200 SMA and 50 SMA are shown in the first circle and they are now 12 points away from a 'Death Cross'.

Bulls look forward to a Golden Deflection and the 'Three outside up"

Bears watch the narrowing gap between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA with anticipation.

Bulls as the current favorites are just below the MVWAP 34 - EOW as of now.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 04 June to 08 June 01 2012 - Bulls bounce off Channel bottoms..

Learning from Last Week:

We identified and studied the confluence of channel bottom resistance on the EOD - which the Bulls used to stage a comeback (click).

The close of May, above the 1300 mark, suggested strength for the Bulls.

Reclaiming the Channel middle ground - where do the Bulls go now?

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 08 June, 2012. 

Bulls removed the Bear's toe from inside this screen - moving the close above the Blue middle line.

Resistance is at the 5 EMA - life would be good for bulls above this level.

STS (above 80) told us last week that the Bulls were in a good place.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:  

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 08 June, 2012.

Bears gave up ownership of this screen with last week's bounce.

The touchdown to channel bottom looks perfect.

With a close above the 5 EMA, Bulls have a perfect take off point.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:  

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  08 June, 2012.

'a' shows us the exact point where we identified the confluence of support last week.

'b' tells us that the index staying above the EOD middle line - would mean that the MVWAP 34 is targeted next.

All short term MAs that we track are crossed and look like crossing each other bullishly soon.

The MACD Histogram is ticking up nicely.

Looking froward into the next week:

The battle for the Middle ground, does not look like its over.

The scale tipping can be gauged, by the  break of the 5 EMA on the EOW or the EOD channel middle.

Bulls would look at taking the MVWAP 34 on the EOD early next week.

Intra-week updates shall be up, to analyze that.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 04 June to 08 June, 2012 - Bulls stampede to Channel top!

Learning from the Past weeks:

We called the end of Bear Times and start of consolidation 4 weeks ago (click).

We reiterated that the Nifty was consolidating couple of times after that (click) and (click).

The Nifty bounced of the extremes of our defined range - fairly accurately.

Then last week we suggested that a forceful move above the 34 EMA, would signal a Bullish breakout (click).

The Nifty spend the last two day above the 34 EMA, with the Bulls in charge of the Short Term.

Where are we now and where are we going to next?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 08 June, 2012. 

The Month candle changed color in one week.
The CCI indicator shows the trend of the month.
The confluence of the 5 EMA and 34 EMA is the current resistance.
Bulls need to break this resistance, to get back the advantage.





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:   

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 08 June, 2012.

The STS Support Resistance line (red), accurately told us that the reversal was on..

Support for Bulls was at the 200 SMA - as suggested last week.

The Bearish Engulfing of last week was negated.

We now have a 'Bullish Engulfing' and its possible successor is the 'Three Outside up' to study.

Bullish Engulfing:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullishengulfingpattern.asp#axzz1xOzjnvc7
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Candlesticks/BulllishEngulfing.html
Three Outside Up:
http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeOutsideUp.html
http://www.candlestickanalysis.com/three-outside-up-candlestick-pattern





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 08 June, 2012.

Along with the 200 DMA on the EOW, the Fibonacci 61.8% on EOD, was suggested as Support for Bulls - in the last study.

Taking off from this Level, the Bulls cracked the 34 EMA and the 200 SMA to touch the 50 SMA.

The volume for this breakout, does not show the force one expected, as seen in the bars above.

The gap between the 200 SMA and 50 SMA, that we saw falling from 80 to 40 last week, is now lower at 20 points.

Channel top (red line) is achieved.

Looking forward into the next week:

Avoiding a bearish cross of the 50 and 200 SMA, would require the Nifty to keep moving up with the current rate of climb - tough ask.

The Bullish pattern on the EOW and the channel resistance on the EOD are what would define the action for the opposing camps next week.

Bulls are the flavor currently.

Intra-week updates shall be up.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 04 June to 08 June 2012 - Sensex back in Pink

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)

The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C) 

Chikou Span Cross: Weak  Bullish  Signal (C) 




BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:   

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 08 June, 2012.  

Learning from the Past Week:

We ended last week's study (click) with the note that we 'watch the Chikou Span'.

This Pink line crossed the Price Bullishly 4 and the resultant candle is massive and green.

The Tenkan Sen, crossing which, is preliminary to trend change, has been conquered. 5

The Kijun Sen and MVWAP 34, act as resistance for now.5

The Oscillator is ticking down, yet...6

Looking forward into the next week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen and getting above the Kijun Sen & MVWAP 34, would be priority for Bulls.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 04 June to 08 June, 2012 - Kijun Cross..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

The Kijun sen cross: Weak  Bearish  Signal (K)

The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:  

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 08 June, 2012

Learning from the Past Week:

Last week (click) we concluded that the Bearish  'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' Cross would be on, unless the Bulls took the index up fast.

We also pointed out that, the Flat Kumo was ending soon (so would its gravitational pull).

We have a solid green candle this week, MVWAP 34 is breached.

The Bulls took the index up and made a Strong Bullish Kijun Sen Cross. 1

Chikou Span has deflected off the Price line - a Bullish note.3

The Oscillator has ticked into minus.2

Bearish 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Cross' looks possible, despite last week's action - Bulls need to do more.

Looking Forward into the Next Week:

Keeping above the MVWAP 34 and the Kijun Sen - the Bulls would look at pulling out of the downward spiral they got into.