CNX Nifty - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 27 Feb to 02 Mar '2012 - Consolidation Times Continue..

Recap: After some serious long unwinding early in the week (see post) - the Bears kept the index below the Fib 76x (EOD chart) and in consolidation mode.  The price stayed above the 34 EMA and below the 5 EMA as marked last weekend on EOD. Currently the Bulls are attempting a comeback using the 13 SMA on the EOM as the base. A look at the March candle's 'low' on the Ichimoku Study of last weekend (post here) would lend credence to this point. 

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 02 M arch 2012

Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): One hoped for the 5 EMA cross above the 13 SMA to happen as the March candle appeared. This was not to be. Ringing in the long term Bull times is kept for another day then. The Bulls would like to continue the up move from where they are and the Bears would like to keep it below 5484 - the Wall for this month..

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Week Chart (EOW): The resistance line on the STS indicator shown last week, is not yet breached. Bulls have kept well above our 13 month resistance line (black) and 34 EMA.  

Nifty - End of Day - 2 March  2012

Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD): The Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA defined the action last week. Bulls seek to get above the 5 EMA, Blue line and the Fib76x to regain some momentum. Notice that our harbinger of  long term Bullishness - the 34 EMA over 200 DMA cross is still good.

Looking Forward: Bulls look to make a beeline for the Wall - 5484 and crack it. The time for that action may depend on how much more bear pressure the 34 EMA over 200 DMA cross can take, while  still intact. Last week's lows have some solid pedigree. Consolidation should continue until our range on the EOD gives up on either side.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 27 Feb to 02 Mar '2012 - Flirting with last year's High

Recap: The SP500 was hovering around last year's high when we discussed it last (post here). The index has closed above last year's high just once on EOD basis, in last week's action. Currently below these highs, one looks for direction from these oversold levels.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 02 March 2012

S&P 500 End of Month Chart (EOM) : As we move into March, the EOM chart above, shows us a flat line at its tip. The 5 EMA has decisively moved above the 13 SMA, indicating long term Bull strength. One can study past action of these moving averages by looking at the earlier crossovers in the chart. A re-look at the following studies (which we first studied here) will put things in proper perspective.

http://www.traderslog.com/moving-average-crossovers/ 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:arthur_hill_on_movin

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 02 March 2012

S&P 500 End of Week Chart (EOW): The weekly channels are in white - across the colored monthly channel lines. The SP500 continues its climb using the middle channel line as resistance. Support for last week was the 5 EMA on the EOW Charts. 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 02 March  2012

S&P 500 End of Day Chart (EOD): The re-aligned Day channel lines are in yellow and are inclined at the same angle as the Weekly channel lines. One can see from the last 5 candles that most of last week's action was in a tight range. SP500 has closed the week a tad below the 5 EMA on the EOD - Bulls however, are still in control.

Looking Forward: The divergences seen last week only resulted in some ranging  - the Bulls retain strength - Bears would look at keeping the price on the EOD below the 5 EMA. Bulls should be happy to remain in the current channel - on the EOD chart. Incidentally the last two candles on the EOD chart forms a 'Bearish Harami' (studied here earlier). However this rather weak 'bearish pattern' does not make it 'Advantage Bears' yet...

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 27 02 2012 - Seriously now!

Nifty - End of Day - 27 Feb  2012

We ended last weekend's post (located here) with the words "Bears while strong in the current 'short' term, need to go and stay below the Fibonacci  76.4% (EOD) to be taken seriously" Guess the Bears took that to heart ... crashing through the Fib76x (5414) in the first hour, they stopped just short of our red arrow mark on the 34 EMA - a fall of 150+ points. 

The bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA which was discussed as imminent, also has happened. Notice the Volume bar for the day. The 34 EMA and 200 DMA are good supports, for a bounce back by the Bulls. Now however, we take the Bears seriously :)

CNX Nifty - Triple Screen Technical Analysis - End of Week: 24 Feb 2012 - Consolidation Times..

Recap: We saw the Dual Channel tops - Day and Week channels - as a possible reason for consolidation, in last week's 'Looking Forward & EOD' (post here). The correction started at channel top (post here). The Fib 76x was seen as support for throwback - and so it was (post here). We started analyzing the SP500 with all three screens (post here).

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): As always we take a 'Long Distance View' of the Nifty with the chart above - where each candle is a Month's data. The pullback to the green channel is still on - and we look forward to the 5 EMA over 13 SMA cross to ring in Bull times again. The area in the square as marked above - is what we analyze with the EOW chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Week chart (EOW): We have a consolidation around the channel top - which is good, so long as the Bulls get moving again, into the new 'up' channel marked (black lines) above. The lower volume bar for this red candle week, should give the Bulls the required zest. EOD analysis of the area marked with a blue square is up next.

Nifty - End of Day - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Day chart (EOD): The Correction was supported at the Fib 76x as we calculated - however Price did not bounce back into the comfort zone for the Bulls. A bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA looks imminent.  One notes that the Longer term Bullish cross of the 34 EMA over 200 DMA is still intact and this correction would test the strength of the Bull resolve on that count.

Looking Forward:  End of Month data is important later on in the week.  Bulls get back the 'power' above the 5484 mark and would look at keeping above the Fib 76x (5414) to keep momentum.  Bears while strong in the current 'short' term, need to go and stay below the Fibonacci  76.4% (EOD) to be taken seriously. 

S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - End of Week: 24 Feb 2012 - Almost at last year's High

Recap: We analyzed the S&P with End of Week charts until last week. Now we shall do the full three screens - Month, Week and Day as we do for the Nifty. Last week (see post here) we saw the SP500 eying last year's high and we find as of now, that its still a mite below it.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 24 Feb  2012

S&P 500 End of Month Chart (EOM) : The chart above is an update of the chart we studied end Jan'12 (post here) and learned that it was 'Advantage Bulls'. As one can see highlighted above, the green price line has moved well above the 'Blue Middle Line' of our Monthly channel set. 

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012

S&P 500 End of Week Chart (EOW) : For a closer look, we zoom in with the EOW charts. We see the '3 white lines' of the Weekly channel. As we observed for the past few weeks, the SP500 is on a steep rate of climb and is sticking to below the week's middle channel line. Last year's High is yet to be taken out.

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 24 Feb  2012

S&P 500 End of Day Chart (EOD) : Here you can see the 'red, blue and green' lines of the Month chart. Slashing across it you see the 'three white lines' of the Weekly chart. Hugging below the 'white mid-line' of the Weekly chart are our three 'Yellow' Day chart lines. The SP 500 has stayed above the Middle line of these 3 Day Channel lines. Its also above all the short term MAs viz. 5 EMA, 13 SMA and 10 EMA.

Looking Forward: The Bull option is to break above the Mid-line of the Week channel and the Bear option is to go below the Mid-line of the Daily channel. Current momentum favors the Bull. Divergences (on technical indicators, EOM and EOD) favor the Bear. Closing above last year's high is the next milestone.