Trade, Live and Thrive

Thursday, February 9, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 09 02 2012 - On the Summit .. Fib 76x

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 09 Feb 2012

Our last EOD Analysis (here) saw the Bears move the index down from the # Fib76x by 90 odd points - now we see from the highlighted area above, that Bulls have brought it back up and closed it at 5412 .. precisely at the Fib76x. We look for a close above the Fib76x as confirmation of the current range (Fib 76x - 200 DMA) being broken. The red channel top is next target for the Bulls.

# Fib 76x = Fibonacci 76.4% .. this is drawn from the 2008 bottom that the Nifty made to the 2011 top - FYI ... again.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 07 02 2012 - Knocking on the Fib 76x

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 07 Feb 2012

5414 was where we saw the Fib 76x last week (post here - see 'Looking forward') - 5413 is the high for this week's candle to date - the alert Bear would have taken home 90 odd points (see last candle) riding the fall from Fib76x to candle bottom. Bulls however continue to remain strong above the 200 DMA. The last two candles resemble the 'hanging man' pattern which we studied here last.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 03 Feb 2012

Recap: We understood that the bears were at a disadvantage above the 34 EMA and planned to watch the US S&P 500 month close (post here). We took direction from the US S&P 500 (post here) and watched the 200 DMA being taken out (post here). We also noticed that 13 was unlucky for Bears :) as a 13 month old channel resistance gave way to the Bull onslaught (post here). We ended the week with a couple of studies (just below this post).

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 03 Feb 2012

Nifty End of Month Chart (EOM): The month candle is in the oversold zone. The Bullish stance is studied in the Ichimoku Update (here). A cross of the SMA 13 and EMA 5 needs to be watched - lets now zero in on the 'circled' area with the EOW chart.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 03 Feb 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart (EOW): A major resistance gave way last week - freeing the bulls and making the bears run for cover. The channels to be watched are marked on the Price and oscillator. Let's now zoom in on the highlighted area with a EOD analysis.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 03 Feb 2012

Nifty End of Day Chart (EOD): With the 200 DMA being crossed last week, it becomes our support for now. Resistance is same as last week - the Fib 76x. Throw back now should not go beneath the 200 DMA.

Looking forward: 5414 thereabouts is where the Fib76x is located. With some ranging between this level and the 200 DMA, one sees the up move safe to resume. Divergences on the Oscillators (EOD-chart) and World cues matter (analyzed in the post here). Intra Week updates shall be up.

Saturday, February 4, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 03 02 2012 - above the blues

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week Jan' 30 to Feb'03, 2012

Our End of Jan'12 Analysis (post here) concluded that it was Advantage Bulls. Since then the bulls have moved the index up 30 odd points, keeping well above the BLUE middle line of the monthly channel (shown above). The 3 white lines show the Weekly channel (update from old post here). Moving above the middle line of the Weekly channel is what would keep the Bulls on their toes next week.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

EOW (update) Analysis CNX Nifty - 02 02 2012 - Thirteen and still lucky?

Nifty 02 02 2012 End of Week Chart - update

We have the fine tuned EOW Channel that we study, above - updated at this crucial time for your perusal. As things stand now, its a channel which has stood for 13 months and appears to have luck on its side until now - will it give way this week ?

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.