Monday, November 30, 2015

US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Seeing Stars - Week 1 of December 2015.











Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
.
  • After the long green candle of the previous week, Bulls pause with a Doji  #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index took support just above the 5 EMA on the Weekly Chart #W1 - it again failed to pierce the week Channel's bottom (orange) #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on Monthly Screen look ready to cross bullishly, once the December candle is up - at current levels #M1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, spikes above the 60% mark  #W2.  


    Wrap:
    Bears keep the index below the Week Channel bottom (orange) #W1.
    Undecided Bulls produce a doji #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • The 'W' pattern on the Day Chart is still active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    • The Doji on the Medium Term screen can trigger an Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1. 
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 200 SMA on the day chart, is now the Index support, that Bears want to get below. Index Resistance is the Week Channel's Bottom line (orange) #W1,
    Moving Averages:
    • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
    Indicators:
    • STS back to the oversold #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bulls continue to See rewards in the big 'W' pattern #D1, with a breakout from the ATH #M1.

    Bears want to use the resistance at the Week Channel bottom (orange) #W1 to produce an Evening Doji Star #D1.



    Europe - CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo zone - Week 1 of December 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Bulls stay above of the Kumo, Chikou Span stays below the Price line #W1. 
    Index again takes support near the Kijun Sen #W2, to make this up move.
    Senoku Span A & B, steady #W3.

    Wrap: 
    Bulls have another green week even as Index stays above the Kumo #W2.
    Bears keep the Chikou Span, below the Price line #W1.


    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span crossing above the Price line, is the current Bull ask #W1.
    Index is now vacillating in and out of the Kumo, Bulls now have support at the Senoku Span A (4848)  #W2.
    Cross of the Senoku Span A & B is the next event, that the Bears hope for #W3.

    Wrap:

    Bears look to get the index back in the Kumo and below the Kijun Sen #W2.
    Bulls seek stay above the Kumo and get the Chikou Span to clear the Price line #W2.


    India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Star Verdict - Week 1 of December 2015.












    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

    Patterns:
    • Bulls take off from the Middle line of the Day Channel #D1.
    • Engulfing action on the medium term chart tuns into a 'Three Outside Up' as studied last week #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Last week the Bulls again found support at the Day channel middle #D1Bears halt the index at the Weekly 13 EMA #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross over Bullishly on the Day Chart #D1.
    Indicators:
    • On the Day chart the  MACD and its MA cross bullishly, staying below zero, Histogram ticks plus #M2.

    Wrap:

    Bulls take support near at the Day Channel middle line #D1. 
    Bears lose ground, but defend the weekly 13 SMA #W1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Shooting Star, is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Screen #M1 for December, only if November (on Monday) closes below the October Open (i.e. 7992)
    • 'Three Outside Up' (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Charts, track its targets, based on the verdict of the above #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index has immediate support at the S2 of the Month Pivot. Resistance is at 8343 the weekly 50 SMA #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active, these MAs are now Bullishly Converging (needs watching) #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, will cross Bullishly, on the Weekly charts, if index closes above 8062 this week #W1.
    Indicators:
    • The STS hovers above the oversold, its MA crossing above it, is the Bull ask #W2.


    Wrap :
    Holding below 7992. Bears plan for life below the Day Channel mid line #D1.
    Defending the Day channel mid line #D1, Bulls seek the weekly 50 SMA #W1.


    China - SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Support - Week 1 of December 2015.





    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Index corrects sharply to near the Tenkan Sen, with the fall mapped on the Kumo #W2.

    Chikou Span dips below the Kijun Sen #W1.
    Senkou Span A & B, stay crossed Bearishly and rise #W3.

    Wrap: 

    Index rises and falls, inside a rising Kumo #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bearish Senoku Span Cross is active (
    Its called a 'Neutral' Bearish cross, because it occurred when the index was on Neutral territory i.e inside the Kumo) #W2.

    Bulls seek to keep the index inside the Kumo #W2,.
    Bulls need theTenkan Sen support, for the next rise inside the Kumo #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bears push for a resumption of the down trend, after the Senoku Span Cross #W3.
    Bulls seek life in the Kumo and a steady up-move W2 .



    Saturday, November 28, 2015

    Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - High Wave - Week 1 of December 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Bulls hold index to a higher low, with a green week and a high wave candle #W2.

    Chikou Span points towards the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, narrows sharply #W3.
    Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, steady #W2.

    Wrap: 

    Bears moving the index towards the last bottom for a retest, Index keeps the higher low with a green week #W2. 




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bulls aim for the Tenkan Sen and look for life above it  #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide at #W3 & above the last Price point, making a thick Kumo - and a strong resistance to an up-move, when we get there #W3.
    Senoku Span A & B, headed for a cross or deflection with these lines getting closer #W1.


    Wrap:

    Returning after a Double Bottom, and taking out the Tenkan Sen #W2, is the next Bull plan.
    Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen, and take out the previous low #W2.


    Say....






    Monday, November 23, 2015

    US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bull Attack.- Week 4 of November 2015.













    Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    .
    • After the Bearish Marubozu of the previous week, Bulls make up the lost ground with a long green candle #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index took support just above the 50 SMA on the Day Chart #D1 - it stopped and returned exactly at the week Channel's bottom (orange) #W1.
    Moving Averages:  
      • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on Monthly Screen alone is crossed Bullishly - and will stay that way until index closes clears 2112 #M1.
      Indicators:
      • RSI 13, spikes above the 50% mark  #W2.  


      Wrap:
      Bears manage to defend the Week Channel bottom (orange) #W1.
      Bulls make a tall green candle and clear the 200 SMA #D1.




      Looking forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • The 'W' pattern on the Day Chart is still active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
      Support & Resistance: 
      • 200 SMA on the day chart, is now the Index support, that Bears want to get below. Index Resistance is the Week Channel's Bottom line (orange) #W1,
      Moving Averages:
      • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
      Indicators:
      • STS back to the oversold #W2.


      Wrap:

      Bulls seek the rewards of the big 'W' pattern #D1, with a breakout from the ATH #M1.

      Bears want to use the resistance at the Week Channel bottom (orange) #W1 to take the index back into the Day Channel #D1.


      Europe - CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Support - Week 4 of November 2015.






      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


      Learning from the Earlier Study: 
      (click here for the previous post)

      Chikou Span again points to the Price line, Bulls pop out of the Kumo #W1. 
      Index takes support near the Kijun Sen #W2, to make this up move.
      Senoku Span A & B, steady #W3.

      Wrap: 
      Chikou Span turns back to the Price line - Bulls up #W2.
      Bears defend the Chikou Span again #W2.


      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Chikou Span crossing above the Price line, is the current Bull ask #W1.
      Index is now vacillating in and out of the Kumo, Bulls now have support at the Senoku Span A (4848)  #W2.
      Cross of the Senoku Span A & B is the next event, that the Bears hope for #W3.

      Wrap:

      Bears look to get the index back in the Kumo and below the Kijun Sen #W2.
      Bulls seek stay above the Kumo and get the Chikou Span clearing the Price line #W2.


      India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - An Engulfing Week - Week 4 of November 2015.










      Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

      Patterns:
      • Bears slip above the Day Channel's Middle Line (blue), after failing to take out our fallback level 7707 once again #D1.
      • High Wave candle on the Medium Term Chart is Engulfed by last week's action #W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Last week the Bulls again found support near the Month Pivot's S2 (7707) #M1Bears clear the Channel Middle line but stopped at the Weekly 5 EMA #W1.
      Moving Averages: 
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, remain crossed bearishly on all charts.
      Indicators:
      • On the Day chart the  MACD and its MA, stay below zero, Histogram tick up #M2.

      Wrap:

      Bulls take support near our fallback level 7707 and clear the Channel middle line #D1. 
      Bears again - almost dominate - all 3 screens.





      Looking Forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • Shooting Star, is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Screen #M1.
      • Engulfing Candle, active on the Medium Term Screen, watch for a 'Three Outside Up' (Study Links herehere or elsewhere#W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index has immediate support at 7707. Resistance is again at 8040, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the 'ATH'  #W1.
      Moving Averages: 
      • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active, these MAs are now Bullishly Converging (needs watching) #D1.
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, crossing back Bullishly, on the Day charts, to be watched for #D1.
      Indicators:
      • The TRD, holding above the 38.6% retrace is the next Bull hope #M2.


      Wrap :
      Holding 7707 for the week, Bulls look to fight back to the Day channel top #D1, with some help from  last week's Engulfing Action #W1.
      Bears hunt for life below 7707 #M1, and clear domination of all screens.