S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Red 2014, Bears Move - Week 5 of January 2014.

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 24 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 24 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 24 Jan'14

Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
• January 2014 candle remains red #M1.

Support & Resistance:

• Bears move Index below the 5 EMA on weekly chart, even as the MVWAP and Channel Bottom fail to support the Bulls #W1.
• Bulls stay above the 5 EMA on the Monthly chart #M1.

Moving Averages:  

• On the EOD the 5 EMA bearishly crosses below the 13 SMA mid-week #D1.
• On the EOW the 5 EMA poised to - deflect Bullishly or Cross Bearishly - the 13 SMA #W1. 

Indicators:

• RSI 13, slips from the overbought #W2.
• Month Chart Oscillator below the overbought, as it has been after the August'13 Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls saw red all year and now lose strength - Bears take the Short Term and close to taking the Medium Term too..   

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) #M1 - seems spent.
• Medium Term Chart shows a Bearish 'Three Inside Down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) with the last three candles #W1. 

Support & Resistance:

• MVWAP 34 and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are now resistance for the Bulls.
• Medium Term MVWAP 34 #W1, is the next Support.

Moving Averages:

• Bears need to stay below the 5 EMA on the EOW (1817) to stay in the game #W1.
• Bulls need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOW above the 13 SMA (i.e. keep above 1793) to get some life back #W1.

Indicators:

• Stochastic 34 3 4 heading to the over sold, works for the Bears #D1.
• Oscillator popping into the over-bought this month, can set the Bulls free #M1.  

Wrap:

Bears seek to keep their momentum with a stay below 1817 - Bulls want life back and the Index above 1793.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Cracks - Week 5 of January 2014.

Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 24 Jan'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get hammered after holding off above the Tenkan Sen the previous week #W2.
Senoku Span A & B converge some more and head up #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2.
Chikou Span eyes the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls lose plot and crash through the Tenkan Sen #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Convergence of Senoku Span A & B, remains a concern for Bulls #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steadies, widening gap would give the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above Kijun Sen and retake Tenkan Sen #W2.
Chikou Span deflection or cross of the Price line to be watched #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep above the Kijun Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen is strong resistance for the Index #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Wall to ATH - Week 5 of January 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 24 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 24 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 24 Jan'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• November and December candles will set up a Long Term 'Three Outside up' if January closes above December Close #M1.
• The EOW #W1 shows a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern followed by two green candles.

Support & Resistance:

• Bears held near Channel mid line Support on the EOD just below the Wall (6280), while Bulls were again resisted last week around the Nov 2013 ATH (i.e. 6343) for the third time this year.
• Index builds on last week's gains, staying above the 13 SMA (EOD) for most of the week but dives (Friday) to close below the 13 SMA (EOD) and Monthly 'Pivot Point' (Learn here, here or elsewhere) again #D1.

Moving Averages:

• Medium Term Screen's 5 EMA was the support for Bulls last week #W1. 
• The short term 5 EMA close to Bullish deflection or Bearish Cross of the 13 SMA #D1.  

Indicators:

• STS stays above resistance line marked, a strong support for Bulls #W1. 
• MACD and its MA poised to meet for cross or deflection #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls retain control of all screens - Bears keep index below the Wall (6280) #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Bullish 'Three Outside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible - to be watched for.   
• Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 

Support & Resistance:

• 13 SMA Weekly (6191), is again support for the Index #W1.
• Around the Nov 2013 ATH (i.e. 6343), Bulls see strong resistance.

Moving Averages: 

• Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can even now give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
• Getting above the 13 SMA on the EOD is the immediate Bull task, while getting the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA ,is the Bear ask  #D1. 

Indicators:

• STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
• Bulls need to cross and sustain above the Wall for the current series i.e. 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere) to avoid a red series.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to get above the Wall and target the ATH - Bears plan to stay below the Wall and break 6191. 

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Elusive ATHs - Week 5 of January 2014.

BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 24 Jan'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls hold above the Tenkan Sen and notch up another aborted ATH attempt #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - expands #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also increases #W2

Wrap: Bulls stay above the Tenkan Sen but fail near the ATH #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Expansion of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B indicative of Bull strength #W2 #W3.


Wrap: Bears look get the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the elusive ATH. 

Say ...

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Red 2014 - Week 4 of January 2014.

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 17 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 17 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 17 Jan'14

Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
• January 2014 candle remains red #M1.

Support & Resistance:

• Index closes a mite below the 5 EMA on EOD, even as the MVWAP and Channel Bottom support the Bulls #D1.
• Bulls stay below the EOW channel top resistance (orange line) #W1.

Moving Averages:  

• On the EOD the 5 EMA bearishly crosses below the 13 SMA and again mid-week, bullishly crosses above the 13 SMA #D1.

Indicators:

• RSI 13, stays in the overbought #W2.
• Month Chart Oscillator just below the overbought, as it has been after the August'13 Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls still see this year with a red hue, but retain strength - Bears continue to hold fort at the EOW channel top #D1, #W1..

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.

Support & Resistance:

• MVWAP 34 and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart continue to be Support for the Bulls.
• 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.

Moving Averages:

• Bears need to stay below the 5 EMA on the EOW to have a life #W1.
• Bulls need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOD above the 13 SMA to keep their life #D1.

Indicators:

• Stochastic 34 3 4 in the overbought zone, works for the Bulls #D1.
• Oscillator popping into the over-bought this month, can set the Bulls free #M1.  

Wrap:

Bears seek momentum with a bearish cross of the 5 EMA &13 SMA on the EOD - Bulls want to get green back into 2014 candle (Month/Year).

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Visit - Week 4 of January 2014.

Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 17 Jan'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get first green week of 2014 after a near bounce off the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senoku Span A & B converge some more and head up #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen widens #W2.


Wrap: Bulls keep stalemate on with a near bounce off the Tenkan sen #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Convergence of Senoku Span A & B, a concern for Bulls #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen wide, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to remain above current support (Tenkan Sen) #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep momentum and make new ATHs while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Wall holds again - Week 4 of January 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 17 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 17 Jan'14

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 17 Jan'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• November and December candles will set up a Long Term 'Three Outside up' if January closes above December Close #M1.
• The EOW #W1 shows a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern followed by last week's green candle.

Support & Resistance:

• Index breaks last week's resistance 13 SMA (EOD) to pull off a 250 odd point move but closes just below the Monthly 'Pivot Point' (Learn here, here or elsewhere) #D1.
• Bears held at Channel mid line Support on the EOD above most of the MAs we track, while Bulls were resisted last week near the previous ATH 6343.

Moving Averages:

• EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA continue converging for a Death Cross even as they currently stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
• The medium term 5 EMA kept above the 13 SMA by the Bull up-move #W1.  

Indicators:

• STS stays above resistance line #W2, a strong support for Bulls. 
• MACD moves back into the plus zone with a negative divergence (arrow) #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls regain control of all screens - Bears continue to keep index below the Wall (6280) #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Bullish 'Three Outside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible - to be watched for.   
• Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 

Support & Resistance:

• 13 SMA Weekly (6195), is now support for the Index #W1.
• Earlier ATH i.e. 6343 is the current resistance holding back Bulls.

Moving Averages: 

• Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can even now give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
• Getting above the 5 EMA on the EOD is the immediate Bull task #D1. 

Indicators:

• STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
• Bulls need to cross and sustain above the Wall for the current series i.e. 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere) to get back into the game.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to get above the Wall and target the ATH - Bears plan to stay below the Wall and break 6195. 

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen gives support - Week 4 of January 2014.

BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 17 Jan'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls retake the Tenkan Sen and make another dash at the ATH #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap rock steady #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also steady #W2

Wrap: Bulls close above the Tenkan Sen to green 2014 #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Flattening of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B indicative of consolidation before a major move #W2 #W3.


Wrap: Bears look get the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the ATH. 

Say ...

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 2014 stays Red - Week 3 of January 2014.

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 10 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 10 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 10 Jan'14

Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
• January '14 candle remains red #M1.

Support & Resistance:

• Index closes above the 5 EMA on all screens #D1, #W1, #M1. 
• Bulls stay below the EOW channel top resistance (orange line) #W1.

Moving Averages:  

• On the EOD the 5 EMA poised to bearishly cross or bullishly deflect the 13 SMA #D1.

Indicators:

• RSI 13, stays in the overbought #W2.
• Month Chart Oscillator just below the overbought, as it has been after the August'13 Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls still see this year with a red hue, but retain strength - Bears continue to hold fort at the EOW channel top #D1, #W1..

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

• Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.

Support & Resistance:

• MVWAP 34 and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls.
• 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.

Moving Averages:

• Bears need to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW to get a life #W1.
• Bulls need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOD above the 13 SMA to keep their life #D1.

Indicators:

• Stochastic 34 3 4 in the overbought zone, works for the Bulls #D1.
• Oscillator popping into the over-bought this month, can set the Bulls free #M1.  

Wrap:

Bears seek momentum with a bearish cross of the 5 EMA &13 SMA on the EOD - Bulls want to get green back into 2014 candle (Month/Year).