Trade, Live and Thrive

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Nifty: Week ending - 09th December 2011.

Recap : Refer posts from last weekend (3rd Dec'11) - With the Nifty above the 34 EMA last weekend, we had anticipated a move to our red channel line.. we also expected ranging which happened .. our Intra-Week post of 7th Dec'11, indicated that Bears could make a dash for the Fib61x - which is precisely where the Nifty ended by weekend...

The Charts...

End of Day Chart

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 09 12 2011

Nifty End of Day Chart: Nifty ended on the Fibonacci 61.8% of the 2008 low to 2010 high...as one can see quite a watering spot for the Nifty in recent time...note the range indicated by the arrows...

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 09 12 2011

Nifty End of Week Chart: We see that there is a Bearish Harami in place...in direct contrast we have the indicator taking support on the resistance line...back to class...more about the candle pattern and how to trade it here...

http://thepatternsite.com/HaramiBear.html
http://www.traderslog.com/bearish-harami-weekly-candlestick/

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 09 12 2011

Nifty End of Month Chart: Notice that the Bullish Harami we saw last week disappeared...5 EMA continues to be resistance at which this month is fighting.. a pullback to the green channel line is still a possibility...

Looking Forward: We analyzed the SP 500 earlier today, we saw the contra signals that this week's study has given us...Currently Nifty is in a Bear mode but on a decent support line... One sees the Nifty ranging as indicated on the Day chart.. based on how the rest of the world opens up we shall take a directional call later in the week...

S&P - End of Week - 09 Dec 2011

SP 500 - End of Week Chart - 09 Dec 2011

The Falling channel formed by the Weekly candles since May 2011, is depicted above...let's look at the last two candles....we have a critical resistance line that the next week's candle needs to fight, to keep the Bulls in business...we also have the possibility of a Evening star formation - if next week's candle opens below this week's candle - as a student of the markets let us then use this excuse to study this pattern at the link below...

http://thepatternsite.com/EveningStar.html

So watch out for that resistance line and candle formation....peace!

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Quote for the Week...

Business, more than any other occupation, is a continual dealing with the future; it is a continual calculation, an instinctive exercise in foresight.

Henry R. Luce

Guess that applies to Trading like 100%

Update - End of Day 09 12 2011

BINGO !

The bears closed Nifty exactly on our mark of Fib61x ... Weekly updates up tomorrow, have a good one...

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Update - End of Day 08 12 2011

We feared a 'failure by the Bulls' yesterday (see highlighted text below).. and right on cue, the Bears made that dash to the Fib 61x and are half way there.... staying below today's close the journey resumes tomorrow.. however if Bulls can keep it above today's close they should move the index back towards the 34 EMA.....

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.